The Money Line: Odds, Prediction for WNBA Most Valuable Player

Raise your hand if you called Los Angeles Sparks forward Nneka Ogwumike winning the WNBA MVP before the season started.

If your hand is up, put it down and stop lying. While Ogwumike had put together four above-average seasons, including three straight All-Star nods from 2013-2015, her 2016 season was one that was unforeseen. Her scoring jumped from 15.8 PPG the prior two seasons to 19.8 (third in the league), aided by her unbelievable 66.5 percent from the field, the second best shooting season in WNBA history. Not only that, she also hit 61.5 percent of her threes after making just 7-for-34 in her career prior to 2016, helping to make her the most efficient shooter in WNBA history in any single season. Her rebound, assist, block and steal percentages all went up from the season before. Basically, Ogwumike improved in every way possible.

How low were her odds exactly prior to the season? According to Paddy Power, Ogwumike’s best odds at any given point to win the MVP were at +3500 (35-to-1), meaning if you would have bet $100, you would have won $3,500. Want some historical perspective on those odds? Those were the same odds that Mississippi State had at beating UConn in their Final Four matchup this season.

What about 2017? With plenty of movement around the league from rosters to front offices, the MVP could go a number of different ways. Let’s explore them.