Will Kelsey Plum Be the Steph Curry of the WNBA? A Scouting Breakdown

No singular event in sports can alter a franchise’s direction like the draft. Talent trumps all, and being able to land a player that can develop into a dominant force is what every team dreams of. A player that can be a foundation for future success, the face of the team or the league, even such an anomaly to the game that opponents will scramble trying to figure out how to slow them down. This is what the team that drafts Kelsey Plum, a point guard who broke record and ankles nightly, is hoping they’ll get. And it sure looks like it will.

Plum is the 2017 WNBA Draft’s likely first overall pick, and for good reason. During her senior year at Washington, she averaged 31.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Her shooting splits: 53.7% from the field, 43.6% from deep, 88.7% from the charity stripe. So, enough flame emojis to fill a millennial’s iMessage to his wannabe rapper friend. She put up those numbers while being guarded like THIS:

The ceiling for Plum is essentially becoming the Stephen Curry of the W. Comparisons between the NBA and WNBA are generally lazy and unnecessary, but not in this case. Curry reshaped how NBA defenses thought and reacted, opening up a ton for his teammates and incinerating the league along the way. Plum can do the same, as a deadeye marksman (markswoman?) from everywhere that can burn you for overplaying just a bit. The team that drafts her has to consider building their offense around “give Plum the ball, put shooters and playmakers around her, have her run a high screen.” This isn’t a fringe opinion either.

“No,” one WNBA coach said when asked if this thinking was nuts. “She’s a dynamic scorer.”

Plum’s shooting, speed and I.Q. made for glorious television. She can pull-up from three, and beyond, from any direction. Her ball-handling is cunning, and done with purpose. Her whole body is on a string as she crosses over and sizes up helpless opponents, creating tons of space with each move. You can’t afford to give her any space. Her release is not only gorgeous, but lightening quick. Play up on her, and risk getting bolted by. Plum’s change of pace and acceleration are really good, and she’s a crafty finisher, with many Curry-like scoops and up-and-unders. She’s left-handed, which may or may not throw defenders off, but can drive right and score on simpler lay-ups with her off-hand.

All this boils down to, in theory, an impossible guard in the pick-and-roll. Go under and she’s burying you from three. Soft hedge and she’s burying you from three, or hesitating and bursting into the lane. Hedging hard has been the most successful measure, but once Plum starts better recognizing the quick dump-off pass that counters it, game over there. Switch, and, well:

This was the case at the college level. Things might not be so easy in the W. Plum is only 5’8” 145 pounds, with little vertical. A sound, crowding defense can bother her as she works best in space. She averaged 4.8 assists, only cracking 10 in a game once this season. However, these concerns are hard to take seriously.

Despite her frame, Plum is surprisingly strong, and isn’t knocked off balance easily when driving. She’ll take hits in the paint and remain postured and standing when other players would go tumbling into the cameramen. The numbers don’t resonate with Plum being a gifted passer in reality. Her point guard I.Q. is great, she makes all the right reads and puts good speed on the ball. The moments you see her drive, collapse the defense and fling a pass across her body to the weak side corner shooter are the moments you think, “she’s going to tear the W apart.” Are the assist numbers a real worry? Doubt it. She’s clearly not selfish and is still developing. Washington’s offensive scheme boiled down to letting Plum work a lot, which is fine, but WNBA teams will be able to make her even more dangerous with some clever sets. If she picks up on a couple more passes and drops some of the jump-passing she’d essentially be a one-woman wrecking crew.

If there is a sticking point in Plum’s game, it’s her defense. And even that is hard to get worked up over. She has the speed, I.Q. and strength to get good at it. As of now, even slightly bigger players score on her one-on-one easily. She’s always gunning for defensive rebounds, which will result in ball-watching and over-helping towards the paint. There isn’t much film of her fighting over screens, which is curious because if the Curry comparison hits, WNBA teams will attack her defense come a playoff series.

They will make her guard pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll. Wing players will be encouraged to post her up and make her work defensively. She’ll need an answer to this, but for now, the fact that her impending offensive dominance is making us ask the question says all you need to know about Kelsey Plum.