2019-2020 Patriot League preview: Can Bucknell hold onto the top spot?

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 16: Head coach Sue Troyan of the Lehigh Mountain Hawks looks on during a women's college basketball game against the American University Eagles at Bender Arena on February 16, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 16: Head coach Sue Troyan of the Lehigh Mountain Hawks looks on during a women's college basketball game against the American University Eagles at Bender Arena on February 16, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
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Indeya Sanders (American University Athletics)
Indeya Sanders (American University Athletics)

American University Eagles
Last season: 22-11 (16-2, 2nd)
Predicted finish this season: 5th

Key returners (last season’s stats)
G- Kaitlyn Marenyi, 5’8, SR: 11.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 43.6% FG, 32-69 from 3PT, 46.4% 3PT, 21 starts, 30.9 MPG
G- Indeya Sanders, 5’6, JR: 6.3PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.1 APG, 38% FG, 25 starts, 27.9 MPG

G-Jade Edwards, 5’10, SO: 7.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 50.0% FG, 20 starts, 21.7 MPG, Patriot League All-Rookie Team

Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
F- Cecily Carl, 6’3: 15.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 53-134 from 3PT, 39.6% 3PT, 30.3 MPG, 33 starts, Patriot League Player of the Year (graduated)
G- Elina Koskimies, 6’0: 10.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, team-leading 58 3PT FGs, 32.5 MPG, 33 starts, Second Team All-Patriot League, Patriot League All-Defensive Team (graduated)
G- Kaitlyn Lewis, 5’8: 8.4 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 3.4 APG, 28.3 MPG, 30 starts (graduated)

Newcomers
F- Lauren Stack, 6’2, (Naperville, IL), FR: Versatile forward is who is a perimeter threat. Recovered from torn ACL during her sophomore season. Won the state title as a freshman. Played for Benet Academy.
G- Sadie Stetson, 5’7, (Waterford, VT), FR: Three-time Gatorade Vermont Player of the Year. Defensive-minded guard who can score in traffic. Played for St. Johnsbury Academy.
F- Karla Vres, 6’3, (Zagreb, Croatia), FR: Played club basketball for Swedish First League. Athletic forward who can run the floor. High school: Jensen Gymnasium Sodra.

F- Thuraya Abdul Hamid, 5’ 10, (Amman, Jordan), FR: Small forward with shooting range. Played for Blair Academy (NJ).

Head Coach: Megan Gebbia, 7th season

Record at American: 117-76

Career NCAA record: 117-76

Gebbia has positioned her program as a consistent competitor for the league title, claiming championships in the 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 seasons. She’s established herself as a top coach and is a two-time Patriot League Coach of the Year.

Gebbia’s excellent performance may have earned her the biggest challenge a coach can face—the burden of expectations. She signed a contract extension this summer that will have her on the sidelines at AU through the 2024-2025 season. Gebbia had stints as assistant coach at Marist, Wright State, UMBC, and Towson. The veteran coach is one the most successful coaches in program history.

Key non-conference games:
Nov. 14- v. Villanova
Nov. 24– at Towson
Dec. 8- v. Minnesota
Dec. 22- v. George Washington

Outlook: The Eagles have some shoes to fill to remain in the championship mix. Their only losses in conference play last year came to a stellar Bucknell team but the conference is deeper this season. AU is young—nine of their 13 players are either freshmen or sophomores.

Did American lose enough from graduation to bring them back to the pack? Patriot League Player of the Year Cecily Carl is gone and that will change things on both ends of the floor. Departing guards Koskimies and Lewis are big losses too.

Gebbia recruits well and this season may require more contributions from new faces than previous campaigns. Talented senior guard Kaitlyn Marenyi will lead the way for one of the most efficient and effective offenses in the league over the last few seasons.

There will be plenty more shots for returning guards Indeya Sanders and Jade Edwards. Can they find enough consistent scoring to position themselves for a playoff run?  Who steps into the starting line-up to make regular contributions?  Who will be their lock-down defender now that Koskimies is gone? Those answers aren’t clear–and neither is American’s place in the top tier of the conference.

Best Case Scenario: Gebbia makes the most of the non-conference slate to mold her team into a hard-nosed, guard-heavy unit that gets scoring from unexpected contributors each game and is tough to guard.  Freshmen Lauren Stack and Sadie Stetson step into significant roles and help Marenyi provide enough scoring punch to continue to make AU one of the toughest teams in the league to beat. Gebbia and staff navigate the parity of the league to make a surprising run in the post-season and find a way to advance to the championship for the third year in a row.

Worst Case Scenario: The team can’t find a way to replace how Cecily Carl impacted play on offense or defense and struggles with consistency. Marenyi, Sanders, and Edwards have good seasons but the depth never develops and they are forced to carry too much of the scoring load. Shooting goes hot and cold throughout the year and that impacts defensive effort. Their youth shows. A few unexpected losses make for a tough stretch to find a fifth-seed for playoffs.