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2019-20 American Athletic Conference preview: After UConn, the league is wide open

By Russell Steinberg

ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 05: Cincinnati Bearcats Forward Iimar’i Thomas (22) attempts to dribble past the defensive pressure of UConn Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) during the game as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UConn Huskies on March 05, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 05: Cincinnati Bearcats Forward Iimar’i Thomas (22) attempts to dribble past the defensive pressure of UConn Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) during the game as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UConn Huskies on March 05, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Cincinnati Bearcats
Predicted Finish: Fourth

Key returners (Last year’s stats):

G Antoinette Miller, 5’6, Sr.: 13.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.9 SPG
F Iimar’i Thomas, 5’10, Jr.: 12.9 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 60% FG
F Angel Rizor, 6’0, Sr.: 9.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 46% FG
G Sam Rodgers, 5’10, Sr.: 9.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, 36% 3PT
G Florence Sifa, 5’7, Sr.: 7.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG

Biggest losses:

Nikira Goings: 8.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG
Andeija Puckett: 4.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 49% FG

Newcomers:

G Aleah Nelson, 5’6, Fr.
G Jada Scott, 6’1, Fr.
F Jana Abdullah, 6’2, Fr.
F Jadyn Scott, 6’1, Fr.
G Jordan Tuff, 5’8, Fr.
G Sofia Gritzali, 5’6, Fr.
G Chellia Watson, 5’8, Fr.
C Neshma Khalifa, 6’4, So.

Head coach: Michelle Clark-Heard, 2nd season

After orchestrating a remarkable turnaround at Western Kentucky, Clark-Heard came to Cincinnati last year and kept the Bearcats on an upward trajectory. Cincinnati won 24 games last season — its most since 2001-02 — and went 12-4 in the AAC to earn a WNIT bid. Clark-Heard has bigger things in mind, however. She brought Western Kentucky to the NCAA Tournament in just her second season there, then took the Hilltoppers back in three of the next four years. With much of last year’s Cincinnati team returning, an NCAA bid in 2020 is a realistic goal.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 5 vs. Utah
Nov. 13 vs. Ohio State
Nov. 27 vs. Iowa (Puerto Rico Clasico)

Outlook:

The American has desperately needed a non-UConn or USF school to put together a quality run in women’s basketball. Last year, UCF established itself, and now, Cincinnati may be ready to join the fray. The Bearcats aren’t going to be Final Four contenders by any stretch, but they are closing in on being [gasp] nationally relevant. Any team that returns its top-four scorers from last year is going to be a factor in its conference, particularly when that includes an all-league first-teamer (Iimar’I Thomas) and second-teamer (Antoinette Miller). Throw in the AAC newcomer of the year, Florence Sifa, and Cincinnati has more than enough to contend.

Cincinnati wasn’t a great shooting team last year; its strength came on defense. The Bearcats ranked fourth in the nation in opponent points per 100 possessions and tops in the American in steals, blocks, and three-point percentage defense. Now think about how tough Cincinnati could be if it maintains that level and somebody besides Sam Rodgers learns how to shoot.

Based solely on the known factors, Cincinnati is going to be a contender in the top half of the American. Throw in nine newcomers, and maybe that ceiling is the top two or three. The seven-person freshman class isn’t all that impressive for a program with the resources, location, and brand that Cincinnati has, but it’s still solid. Keep an eye on the twins Jada and Jadyn Scott. Their brother plays for the men’s team and both come in as top-40 wings in their class, according to ESPN. Look for Neshma Khalifa to provide some solid front court depth as a JuCon transfer. If Arame Niang is eligible this season, she can also be a factor. The former Western Kentucky forward showed flashes of potential last year in Bowling Green.

Best-case scenario:

With the question marks surrounding the Florida schools, a second-place finish isn’t out of the question. A Charmin-soft non-conference schedule isn’t going to do them favors come tournament time, but if they limit their losses in the AAC to UConn and maybe a split with the Florida schools, they’ll have a fair resume. With five nationally televised games and a handful more on ESPN3, they’ll also have chances to get in front of the committee, which can be important if a team’s eye test supersedes its numbers. Sign me up for another 12-4 run in the American and a sweaty Selection Monday on the bubble.

Worst-case scenario:

Thankfully, there’s not a ton that Cincinnati has to replace from last year, so it’s hard to imagine the Bearcats regressing. However, if they slip up in the non-conference, it’s going to be hard to recover given their weak schedule. Utah is a dangerous first game and you don’t want to already be fighting an uphill battle before Thanksgiving. A return trip to the WNIT and, depending on the matchup, a quiet exit, is still possible.

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