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2019-20 American Athletic Conference preview: After UConn, the league is wide open

By Russell Steinberg

ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 10: UCF Knights Guard Kay Kay Wright (2) after the game as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UCF Knights on March 10, 2019 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 10: UCF Knights Guard Kay Kay Wright (2) after the game as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UCF Knights on March 10, 2019 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

UCF Knights
Predicted Finish: Third

Key returners (last season’s stats):

G Kay Kay Wright, 5’7, Sr.: 18.0 PPG, 3.5 APG, 4.1 RPG, 35% 3PT
F Masseny Kaba, 6’3, Jr.: 6.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 47% FG
G Sianni Martin, 5’8, RS-Sr.: 3.8 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 45% FG
F Brittney Smith, 6’3, So.: 3.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 54% FG

Biggest losses:

G Kayla Thigpen: 8.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG
G Sydnee McDonald: 6.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG
G Jamesha Paul: 4.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG
G Nyala Shuler: 4.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG

Newcomers:

G Georgia Gayle, 5’9, Jr.
G Kiera Brown, 5’9, Fr.
F Courtajia Sanders, 6’1, Jr.
F Jnaya Walker, 6’1, Jr.
G Ahna Burney, 5’8, Fr.
F Destiny Thomas, 6’2, Fr.
F Grace Stant, 6’0, RS-Sr.
G Breyanna Frazier, 5’8, Fr.

Head coach: Katie Abrahamson-Henderson, 4th season

Try to name a coach who has led a bigger turnaround of his or her program in the past five years. I’ll wait. Katie Abrahamson-Henderson came to Orlando in 2016 with the Knights having suffered back-to-back single-digit win seasons and five-straight years with a losing record. All she did was win 21 in her first season and 22 in her second. Then, in 2018-19, she brought the Knights back to the NCAA Tournament with a second-place finish in the American (that’s a non-UConn first place). Her rebuilding job, however, gets a little tougher this year as the Knights bring in nine newcomers and return just one player who started double-digit games last year. Granted, it helps that the one player is conference preseason co-Player of the Year Kay Kay Wright. UCF’s 26-6 (13-3) record might be tough to repeat in 2020, but you’d be a fool to underestimate a coach who has been to the NCAA Tournament nine times in her 14-year career.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 13 at Florida Gulf Coast
Nov. 30 vs. UCLA (Cavalier Classic in Charlottesville)
Dec. 17 vs. Quinnipiac
Dec. 20 vs. Saint Mary’s
Dec. 30 vs. Central Michigan

Outlook:

Think about everything that Wright did last year, scoring 30 percent of her team’s points per game, playing an average of 36 minutes, having almost three times as many assists as anyone else on her team, and so much more. Now take away seven graduating seniors from that team. Yeah, that’s what’s ahead for Wright. She’s already written her name all over the UCF record books, but if the Knights are going to be close to what they were last year, she’s going to have to be even better. That’s not fair to ask of anyone, but that’s reality.

Any positive outlook for this team involves Wright playing at an elite level, so forget about her for a second (only a second though, come on). She needs to have more help around her than anticipated, and that starts with Masseny Kaba. Kaba scored in double figures eight times last year and had her share of double-doubles. As, presumably, a full-time starter, it’s reasonable to expect an uptick in her numbers. Kaba ranked in the top 15 in the AAC last year in offensive rebounding percentage (10.9) and held her own on the defensive side (14.1). She was also top-20 in effective field goal percentage (50.5). Brittney Smith is in a similar boat, though she didn’t quite have Kaba’s consistency. Her 6.7 percent block rate may be something to watch.

As for the newcomers, well, there are nine of them and they have to replace seven graduates from last year. So there needs to be some production. Abrahamson-Henderson went the JuCo route to get some instant experience in Georgia Gayle, Courtajia Sanders, and Jnaya Walker. While it’s tough to draw a direct comparison from the NJCAA to high-level Division I, Sanders put up the best numbers, averaging 15.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game. Gayle was also a double-digit scorer and has some international experience with the Great Britain U20 team.

The freshman class isn’t the most attractive for this level, but Breyanna Frazier, Destiny Thomas, and Kiera Brown were all three-stars, according to ESPN. Scouts touted Frazier and Brown for their athleticism and cited Thomas’s post skills.

Best-Case Scenario:

Even if Wright is able to be an all-world player (gosh that’d be fun), the Knights still aren’t guaranteed anything. They’re not going to get quality wins in the American and their non-conference doesn’t seem to have enough juice to make up for it. The likes of FGCU, Central Michigan, and Quinnipiac are all solid, but they’re virtual must-win games that will still lack some luster on a resume. That UCLA game is huge.

If the returners around Wright can all step up, the JuCos don’t miss a beat, and the freshmen can at least be serviceable, then yes, UCF can rack up some wins. The Knights will need a lot of them to reach the tournament, but the path is there. A last-10-in and first weekend exit is the most overly optimistic ceiling for this team, but hey, just think about where they were a few years ago.

Worst-Case Scenario:

Could you imagine how much trouble this team would be in if Wright got hurt? Let’s not even entertain that possibility. The other worst-case scenario is that she has to shoulder too much a load, the rest of the pieces don’t really mesh into a solid supporting cast, and UCF takes a significant step back in 2019-20. They probably have enough to earn a postseason bid, but an early flame-out in the WNIT would be a disappointment.

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