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2019-20 American Athletic Conference preview: After UConn, the league is wide open

By Russell Steinberg

ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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STORRS, CT – JANUARY 13: South Florida Bulls Guard Enna Pehadzic (0) dribbles the ball against Connecticut Huskies Forward Batouly Camara (32) defending during the first half of the game between the South Florida Bulls and the Connecticut Huskies on January 13, 2019, at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Stores, CT. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
STORRS, CT – JANUARY 13: South Florida Bulls Guard Enna Pehadzic (0) dribbles the ball against Connecticut Huskies Forward Batouly Camara (32) defending during the first half of the game between the South Florida Bulls and the Connecticut Huskies on January 13, 2019, at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Stores, CT. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

USF Bulls
Predicted Finish: Second

Key returners (last year’s stats):

G Enna Pehadzic, 5’9, Jr.: 12.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG
G Sydni Harvey, 5’10, So.: 11.7 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 34% 3PT
C Beatriz Jordao, 6’3, So.: 12 GP, 11.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 65% FG
C Shae Leverett, 6’2, Jr.: 7.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 57% FG
F Tamara Henshaw, 6’1, Sr.: 6.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 51% FG
G/F Luize Septe, 5’11, So.: 4.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG
G Elisa Pinzan, 5’8, So.:, 4.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 3.3 APG

Biggest losses:

G/F Kit Laksa, 6’0: 3 GP, 16.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 APG
G/F Laura Ferreira, 5’11: 16 GP, 14.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, 40% 3PT
F Alyssa Rader, 6’2: 6.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 39% 3PT

Newcomers:

G Maria Alvarez, 5’7, Fr.
G Elene Tsineke, 5’7, Fr.
G/F Cristina Bermejo, 6’1, Fr.
F Bethy Mununga, 6’0, Jr.
G/F Kristyna Brabencova, 6’0, Fr.

Head coach: Jose Fernandez, 20th season

USF had every opportunity to pack it in last year after Kit Laksa, Beatriz Jordao, and Laura Ferreira all suffered season-ending injuries early on. That Fernandez was able to guide such a young team to even a WNIT bid is a credit to him. It should also serve his team well in 2019-20, as a bunch of those freshmen and sophomores are now a year older and better. We don’t have to wonder what this team will look like without Laksa because we’ve already seen it, for better or for worse. Fernandez has led the Bulls to eight straight postseason appearances and a ninth one seems likely as he continues to pad a coaching resume that’s still missing one big thing: tournament success.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 8 vs. Texas
Nov. 19 at Baylor
Nov. 28 vs. South Dakota State
Nov. 29 vs. Florida Gulf Coast
Nov. 30 vs. Notre Dame
Dec. 19 vs. Mississippi State

Outlook:

For a team that technically lost its two best players from last year, the Bulls sure return a lot. It starts with Enna Pehadzic, who was named second-team all-conference last year and is on the preseason second-team this year. She had the fifth-highest usage rate of any player in the conference (29.1) and made the most of her opportunities, making more threes than anyone else in the AAC (we checked, and yes this is still the conference that had Katie Lou Samuelson).

Unlike UCF, which was picked right behind the Bulls in the preseason, USF doesn’t have to solely lean on its one star. Sydni Harvey made the all-freshman team last year with her 11.7 points per game. She led USF in scoring eight different times.

USF’s balance could be what makes it scary in 2019-20. It’s backcourt duo — plus top-100 recruit Maria Alvarez — gives the Bulls exceptional guard play. Throw in five-star sharpshooter Kristyna Brabencova and they’re all the more dangerous. But USF might be even better in the post. This was the best offensive rebounding team in the AAC last year and the second-best on the defensive glass. Shae Leverett, Tamara Henshaw, and when she was healthy, Beatriz Jordao are the reasons why. Not surprisingly, all three also shot better than 50 percent from the field — those second-chance opportunities tend to be good looks. Second-team JuCo All-American Bethany Mununga should help as well. She averaged a double-double last year with 17.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per contest for Northeastern Oklahoma A&M.

Best-case scenario:

USF makes up for the lost 2018-19 season in a big way. Pehadzic is an all-AAC first-team player, Harvey gets a little better from deep, and the best frontcourt in the conference becomes one of the best in the country. With the help of a few signature non-conference wins, it all equates to a second-place finish in the AAC and puts Fernandez in position to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in his career.

Worst-case scenario:

Last year, we saw the good and the bad of what USF could be. When Laksa (and eventually Ferreira) went down, the Bulls’ season cratered. They played slower than anyone in the conference, which is only a problem if you also can’t score. Which they couldn’t. USF ranked second-to-last in the AAC in field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage, and third-to-last in three-point percentage. Minimal improvement from the returners could mean a third-to-fifth-place finish in the AAC and another trip to the WNIT.

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