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2019-20 American Athletic Conference preview: After UConn, the league is wide open

By Russell Steinberg

ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 09: Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Kayla White (32) brings the ball up court during the game between SMU and Houston on January 9, 2019 at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 09: Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Kayla White (32) brings the ball up court during the game between SMU and Houston on January 9, 2019 at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

SMU Mustangs
Predicted Finish: Twelfth

Key returners (Last year’s stats):

G Kayla White, 5’10, So.: 11.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG
G Amber Bacon, 5’5, So.: 18 GP, 8.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.9 APG
G Arianna Whitfield, 5’6, Jr.: 7.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.2 APG
F Johnasia Cash, 6’kayk, Jr.: 6.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG
F Paige Bayliss, 6’5, So.: 3.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG
F BriShonne Tollie, 6’2, So.: 3.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG

Biggest losses:

F Alicia Froling, 6’3: 10.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 51% FG
F Mackenzie Ellis, 6’2: 3.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG
F Marie Olson, 6’2: 3.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG

Newcomers:

G Desirae Mathis, 5’8, Fr.
F Alexis Leggett, 6’3, Fr.
G Reagan Bradley, 5’8, Fr.
C Florence Tshimanga, 6’3, RS-So.

Head coach: Travis Mays, 4th season

After a successful first season in Dallas, Mays has struggled the last two years, compiling a 21-39 overall record and a 9-23 mark in conference play. He’s a former Texas Longhorn, so he has some sway in the state and has had some success recruiting local talent. He also has a long track record as an assistant, both at the professional and high-major level. This isn’t exactly a make-or-break year for Mays, but with a ton of returning talent, a better showing in the AAC would be helpful.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 16 vs. Northern Colorado
Nov. 20 vs. TCU
Dec. 31 vs. George Mason

Outlook:

SMU’s leading scorer last year, Kayla White, was a freshman and a member of the AAC All-Rookie team. Their fourth-leading scorer, Amber Bacon, missed most of conference season with a leg injury. With those two guards back and a pair of heralded guards coming in alongside them, the Mustangs have a strong backcourt that is capable of holding its own in a conference loaded with top-flight guard play.

That’s the good part. The other side is that Alicia Froling, the team’s second-leading scorer, top rebounder, and most efficient offensive player is gone, along with two more complementary frontcourt pieces in Mackenzie Ellis and Marie Olson. The Mustangs are going to be thin up front and will need Johnasia Cash to take a big step forward in 2019-20. They’ll also need Alexis Legett to come back healthy after missing her freshman season with an injury. Leggett was ranked the No. 38 post player in the country by ESPN and averaged 10-and-15 as a senior in high school.

Best-case scenario:

11-19 and 5-11 in conference is a low bar to try and top, and the Mustangs can do it, provided they stay healthy. Offensively, they’re still a bit of a mess, but like East Carolina, they were also one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 25 nationally in opponent points per 100 possessions. If the post players are ready to play and White is a little more efficient, then SMU can have a good comeback season, finishing around .500 and staying in the WNIT conversation late into conference play.

Worst-case scenario:

Injury concerns make the Mustangs a tough team to peg, but the worst-case scenario would be a bottom-tier finish in the conference as they struggle to find production from anyone at all.

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