100 trips through a NCAA women’s bracket simulator

What an eye test of the data tells us.

With the tip-off of the 2019 NCAA Tournament just hours away, a new tool is allowing fans, journalists and data analysts to see what might happen in the Big Dance.

As Doug Feinberg wrote about for the Associated Press, University of Illinois computer science professor Sheldon Jacobson has created a women’s tournament bracket simulator after running a men’s tournament simulator for the past seven years.

In what is believed to be the first simulator that predicts all 63 games on the women’s tournament, Jacobson used data from the past 25 years to build a computer model that uses over nine quintillion combinations.

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We at High Post Hoops want to commend Jacobson for building this tool that is available for all to use, and clicking on that link gives you a simulated bracket and a winner. Just hit refresh if you want to run another simulation.

So, want to know what’s likely to happen in the tournament? We ran 100 simulations to get a general sense. Here are the top questions that we can answer, thanks to the simulator.

Now, we must note that 100 simulations is a good number, but it is still a relatively small sample size. But there’s definitely a few takeaways that we can find in these simulations that are worth a few thoughts:

Who’s most likely to win it all?

The parity across the sport has never felt more genuine than it has this season, and many teams feeling like they have a legitimate chance at a title. That bore true in the simulations, as 14 different teams ended up winning the national championship across the 100 simulations and no individual team cracked 20 titles.

Mississippi State and Louisville each tied for the most championships and most title game appearances, taking home 19 titles in 28 title games apiece. In addition, Baylor took 15 titles in 25 tries and Oregon grabbed 10 in 19 appearances, while both Notre Dame (21 appearances) and Stanford (17 appearances) won eight.

A little further down the bracket, Iowa won five championships, and both Maryland and NC State won four. Perhaps most intriguing was that UConn only won the national title three times and lost in the title game six times. In fact, the Huskies definitely appear to be the most vulnerable of the top seeds this season, frequently getting upset in the second round by either Rutgers or Buffalo.

Finally, Syracuse won two titles, and Oregon State and Texas A&M won one apiece. That accounts for 99 of the 100 championships. The 100th? That one was truly shocking.

Who were the surprise Final Four teams?

Well, there truly was a few shocking participants in the Final Four across 100 simulations, but perhaps none should stand out more than the only team seeded lower than fourth to win the championship in a simulation: South Dakota State.

In the simulation that they won, the Jackrabbits were the beneficiaries of mayhem across the bracket, as almost every top seed was upset before the Elite Eight. South Dakota State actually made the title game a second time in the 100 simulations and was in the Final Four four times.

But beyond the Jackrabbits, there were other noteworthy tips to take from the region winners.

Greensboro: 9 of the 16 teams made the Final Four throughout the 100 simulations, including one appearance each from 12-seed Bucknell and 13-seed Belmont. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, 5-seed Florida State only made it once, less than 6-seed Kentucky and 7-seed Missouri (twice each). Baylor led all teams with 38 trips to the Final Four, with 2-seed Iowa taking 24 spots and 3-seed NC State nabbing 16 trips to Tampa.

Portland: Top seed Mississippi State was second in the nation with 40 trips to the Final Four, but they’ll likely play a road game against Oregon (27 trips) in order to do so. While those two took up the volume, a total of 10 teams reach the Final Four in the 100 simulations, including 7-seed Texas and 8-seed South Dakota twice apiece, 11-seed Quinnipiac and 12-seed UCF once each.

Chicago: 11 of the 16 teams went to the Final Four at least once in this region, with single trips for 7-seed BYU, 9-seed Michigan State, 10-seed Auburn and 12-seed Rice. In what appears to be a solid and balanced bracket, it was noteworthy that 8-seed Central Michigan made two Final Fours. But perhaps most important here was that 2-seed Stanford won the region nearly as many times (31) as top-seed and de facto home team Notre Dame (38).

Albany: In what feels the most startling compared to the national conversation, UConn didn’t fare as well in the simulations relative to the other top-two seeds, only reaching the Final Four 22 times. Louisville led the country with almost half of the region’s Final Four spots, with 45. 8-seed Michigan, 9-seed Kansas State and 11-seed Tennessee each made a Final Four, while it was intriguing to note 3-seed Maryland made 14 trips, but actually won the title four times in the simulations.

Massive upsets coming?

There were quite a few shocking upsets throughout the field, but let’s focus on the absolute major types: the double-digit seed difference upsets. Interestingly, each 16-seed beat a 1-seed at least once during the 100 simulations, and while Baylor, Louisville and Notre Dame lost exactly once, Mississippi State lost to Southern three times.

There was actually fewer 15-over-2 upsets than there were 16-over-1, as Oregon and UConn went 100-for-100 in the first round and Iowa only lost to Mercer once (though Mercer then proceeded to reach the Sweet 16). UC Davis beat Stanford twice out of 100 and actually went all the way to the Elite Eight in one of those two.

At the 3-seed line, Maryland went perfect against Radford and there was only one win apiece for New Mexico State over Iowa State. Maine beat NC State three times and proceeded to make the Elite Eight once, and Fordham topped Syracuse four times, making one run to the Elite Eight and another to the Sweet 16.

Still, each of the top three seeds all won 96 or more of their 100 first round games in these simulations, so it seems likely that we won’t see any this week. But once we get to the second round, all bets are off.

Tips for the best bracket picks

There’s two stages of team to note for trying to pick the right Cinderella for: who looks like a solid upset pick, and who could be the sneaky deep run team of the season?

A few notes from the 100 simulations:

– The winner of the Buffalo/Rutgers game knocked off UConn more than 20 times. It’s really tough to bet against the Huskies, especially with Katie Lou Samuelson back, but proceed with caution.

– While the 12-over-5 upset has proven to be a more reliable pick on the men’s side, these simulations had one of the 12 seeds making it all the way to — and sometimes past — the Sweet 16 in *at least* 20 times in 100 simulations. The entire field is deep this season, which will lead to some down-bracket upsets.

– Their lows have been exceptionally low, but the simulations seem to believe in Tennessee’s upside still, sending the Volunteers to the Final Four once, Elite Eight four times and the Sweet 16 an even 10 times. Seeing what Holly Warlick’s team does in the tournament will be fascinating

– There’s only one team not playing a home game this weekend, and it just so happens to be that the simulations think there’s bound to be some chaos in Charlotte, where 4-seed South Carolina will face 13-seed Belmont and 5-seed Florida State will battle 12-seed Bucknell on Friday. The two double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16 a combined 10 times during the 100 simulations, including facing each other twice. Keep an eye on Charlotte on Friday.

– Lastly, and something HPH Editor-in-Chief Howard Megdal will find unsurprising, 11-seed and Ivy League champion Princeton made the Sweet 16 seven times and the Elite Eight twice, and will surely be an intriguing matchup for whoever they run up against during the tournament.

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