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NCAA Bracket breakdown: Portland Region

By Howard Megdal

PALO ALTO, CA - FEBRUARY 10: Oregon Guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) celebrates during the women's basketball game between the Oregon Ducks and the Stanford Cardinal at Maples Pavilion on February 10, 2019 in Palo Alto, CA. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PALO ALTO, CA - FEBRUARY 10: Oregon Guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) celebrates during the women's basketball game between the Oregon Ducks and the Stanford Cardinal at Maples Pavilion on February 10, 2019 in Palo Alto, CA. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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To win it all, Mississippi State faces hostile terrain

It’s hard not to feel for Vic Schaefer and Mississippi State. There are still people in Starkville who replay the final seconds of the 2018 NCAA final against Notre Dame in their heads — no, not The Shot, the scramble and missed foul call right before it.

But after losing Victoria Vivians and Morgan William, not to mention his own daughter, Schaefer took his team to another SEC title, finally won the conference tourney, did everything right to get a number one seed.

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And now, for their trouble, they’ll probably have to beat Oregon, possibly the most talented team in the country on paper, in Oregon just to advance to another Final Four.

Best first-round matchup: Arizona State vs. UCF

Look, UCF was always going to suffer from a lower seed than it probably deserved. The committee flat-out did not respect the AAC, it’s the biggest reason UConn got a two seed even with a killer non-conference schedule. And UCF really didn’t have that signature win. But Katie Abraham-Henderson has the Golden Knights playing her style of all-in, defensively intense basketball. If that sounds familiar, that’s because Arizona State does much the same thing under Charli Turner-Thorne. Don’t sleep on South Dakota/Clemson or Miami/FGCU in the 4/13, but I think the 5/12 is the most interesting one on the board here.

Non-one seed positioned to make a run

I mean, clearly Oregon, who won’t have to leave the state to win the region, but don’t sleep on Syracuse, which matches up well with those coming to town for their first two rounds, and oh-so-narrowly lost in Oregon earlier this season. That’ll be a Sweet 16 matchup to watch, with Sabrina Ionescu and Tiana Mangakahia an elite point guard showdown.

Predicted winner

It’s time for Kelly Graves to go to the Final Four. And with Bill Laimbeer and the WNBA eyeing his point guard, no time like the present. If Teaira McCowan plays like she did when these two met in 2017-18 (35 points, 19 boards), it’ll be Mississippi State. Something more like she did this season (five points, 11 rebounds) and it’ll be Oregon prevailing. Says here Ruthy Hebard gets McCowan close enough to the latter numbers to send the Ducks to Tampa.

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