Bracketology: West Virginia is officially an at-large contender

Not ready to make Tynice head to the NIT.

Every week, High Post Hoops bracketologist Russell Steinberg highlights one game from one team in the NCAA Tournament conversation in order to help fans further understand the team’s tournament chances, potential placement, and how it might develop moving forward. Today’s team: the West Virginia Mountaineers, who held off Texas on the road, 64-58 on Monday.

West Virginia Mountaineers
Record: 15-5 (6-3 Big 12)
RPI: 58 SOS: 91
Best win: at Texas (RPI 31) Worst loss: at TCU (RPI 60)

It was only a few weeks ago that we were ready to accept the reality that West Virginia would fade into Power 5 obscurity. The Mountaineers coasted through an easy non-conference schedule, only losing entirely excusable games to Iowa and Missouri. That 9-2 record was enough to put them on the at-large radar, but they needed some good wins.

Losses to TCU and Texas to open conference play should have taken care of that. Only, West Virginia is 6-1 since then, with a win over Iowa State and a huge victory Monday night at Texas.

A spoiler for those waiting for Wednesday’s bracket: The Mountaineers are in there.

Here’s where they stand after that win in Austin:

What we learned

The first thing we learned is that Tynice Martin can score 16 points in a quarter on 7-8 shooting. We found that out right away, as the Mountaineers got off to a hot start to lead 23-13 after 10 minutes. West Virginia as a team was just as impressive early on, out-working and out-playing Texas in the first half. The Longhorns seemed content to push West Virginia to the perimeter as much as possible, forcing the Mountaineers to hit tough shots. And so they did. Repeatedly. Meanwhile they played Texas tight on the other end, creating turnovers and only ceding points from the front court in the first quarter.

More from Big 12

• Your Day in Women’s Basketball, November 2: Shakeup in the ACC with Bollin commit, UNC retool
• Your Day in Women’s Basketball, October 21: Former Texas Tech coach Stollings files lawsuit
• Your Day in Women’s Basketball, August 9: Taurasi to play again, but when?
• Your Day in Women’s Basketball, August 4: Wubble Trouble for the Liberty
• Baylor adds UCLA transfer Jaden Owens

A second-half Texas run was inevitable. The Longhorns closed to within two on a layup from Jatarie White with 6:43 left. More importantly, it looked like West Virginia was running out of gas, getting back late on defense. The Mountaineers aren’t deep — they used just eight players and starter Theresa Eckhelar had already fouled out. So, naturally, Naomi Davenport responded by scoring four quick points then coming up with a steal, taking it the length of the court, and dishing to Kari Niblack to cap a 6-0 run.

Coach Mike Carey noted his team’s resilience after the game:

"“Give our girls credit,” WVU head coach Mike Carey said postgame. “This was our fourth game in eight days. With the numbers we have and the effort they gave today, I’m very proud of them.”"

Oh, and one thing we learned about Texas: Karen Aston can do more than coach basketball:

Projection: At-large, In

West Virginia’s worst loss is still to a mediocre TCU team and it already owns three Group 1 wins (RPI 1-50). Assuming the Mountaineers lose in Ames and at home against Baylor to end the regular season, they can still solidify their resume with a win at Kansas State and in the Big 12 Tournament. A huge win over the Cyclones or Bears would move them from a bubble team to a lock.