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Bracketology: Michigan needs to start racking up wins

By Russell Steinberg

ANN ARBOR, MI - FEBRUARY 08: Michigan Wolverines center Hallie Thome (30) and Michigan Wolverines guard Nicole Munger (10) wait for a rebound during a regular season Big 10 Conference basketball game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines on February 8, 2018 at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan.(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANN ARBOR, MI - FEBRUARY 08: Michigan Wolverines center Hallie Thome (30) and Michigan Wolverines guard Nicole Munger (10) wait for a rebound during a regular season Big 10 Conference basketball game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines on February 8, 2018 at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan.(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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What a Wolverine needs…

Every week, High Post Hoops bracketologist Russell Steinberg highlights one game from one team in the NCAA Tournament conversation in order to help fans further understand the team’s tournament chances, potential placement, and how it might develop moving forward. Today’s team: the Michigan Wolverines, who fell 75-61 at Iowa on Thursday.

Michigan Wolverines
Record: 11-7 (2-4 Big Ten)
RPI: 67 SOS: 74
Best win: vs. Missouri (RPI 33) Worst loss: at Nebraska (RPI 78)

Life in the Big Ten could be a double-edged sword. There are always opportunities to rack up big wins to impress the committee, but in the process, you’re likely to take your share of losses. Michigan, for now, is doing the latter.

The Wolverines fell by 14 at Iowa on Thursday — an excusable loss by anyone’s standards — but it was a huge missed opportunity for a team that has now lost seven times and has not beaten anyone projected to be better than a 9 seed in the tournament.

After a must-win game against Ohio State, Michigan has a brutal stretch on the horizon with a game at Indiana, followed by home contests with Michigan State and a rematch with Iowa. By the end of that, we might know if Michigan is destined for the Dance or the WNIT.

Here’s what we know so far:

What we learned

There are no secrets in conference play and Michigan knew how to approach Megan Gustafson. Not that it made much of a difference. Gustafson was nothing more than mildly inconvenienced early on as she was double-teamed on the touch, and ended up going for 21 points (9-for-14 shooting) and 16 rebounds. They also worked in a full-court press that was disciplined and could cause problems for any team in the country.

More from Big Ten Conference

On the other end, Michigan was aggressive — something that has caused turnover problems in the past but only resulted in seven on Thursday. It wasn’t a great shooting day, but Michigan isn’t a great shooting team. The ball control and a surprising advantage on the offensive glass helped make up for it. In fact, take away a lopsided third quarter and the Hawkeyes only outscored the Wolverines by a point.

Gustafson was the focus of the game, as will be the case literally any time Iowa plays, but Hallie Thome has developed into one of the best post players in the country and does not get the credit she deserves. She is closing in on becoming the school’s first-ever 2,000-point, 1,000-rebound player. All indications are that the senior will have offers waiting for her at the next level.

Projection: Wrong side of the bubble

But again, Michigan is going to have plenty of chances to change that. The Wolverines were barely in the field last week, but have since fallen out. If they are going to fight their way in, it’ll be on the backs of an excellent defenses that holds opponents to around 60 points per game on average and forces nearly 18 turnovers. They just need to avoid bad losses and pick off a couple of surefire tournament teams along the way.

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