In the Big 12, there’s Baylor. There’s Texas. There’s Iowa State. And then there’s everyone else.
At least, that’s how it seems midway through the regular season.
After just three games in Big 12 play, those three teams were undefeated, while every other team had two losses each. ISU now has a loss — to Texas — but those three remain atop the Big 12 standings, and it seems likely that’s how they’ll finish.
In the preseason, Baylor and Texas were picked to finish first and second, while ISU was slotted sixth. After a surprisingly impressive first half to the season, the Cyclones seem destined for their first top-three finish since 2013, and Baylor and Texas seem near-locks for the top two spots.
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So, the conference has three legitimate Sweet 16 contenders, but after that? There’s a dropoff.
No other Big 12 team is receiving votes in either the AP or Coaches poll, nor was picked to make the NCAA Tournament in High Post Hoops’ most recent Bracketology.
The Big 12 team with the fourth-best RPI is Kansas at No. 49.
The Jayhawks (11-3, 1-2) exceeded the meager expectations (preseason picked ninth in the Big 12) in the non-conference, but did not help themselves recently with a loss to Texas Tech. They could be an NCAA Tournament team — and are difficult to stop when Jessica Washington is on fire — but they seem significantly behind the top three teams, as evidenced by a home loss to ISU.
TCU and Oklahoma both entered the season picked to finish in the conference’s top half, but neither has been very impressive.
The Horned Frogs (11-4, 1-3) did not put up much of a fight in a 38-point loss at ISU and a 24-point home loss versus Baylor — including a halftime deficit of 35-11 — but they haven’t looked as poor as the Sooners (5-10, 1-3). Oklahoma doesn’t have a top-100 RPI win and lost to Kansas State (10-6, 1-3) by 30. The Sooners seem destined for their first losing record in conference this millennium.
Oklahoma State, KSU and Texas Tech don’t seem capable of keeping up with the Big 12’s top three. So that leaves West Virginia.
A year after going 8-10 in conference and missing the NCAA Tournament, WVU appears to have the makings of an improved season. Although their resume to date isn’t super impressive, the Mountaineers (11-4, 2-2) have the talent to go on a run and land in the tourney. With two future pros in Tynice Martin and Naomi Davenport, watch out for WVU.
If the Big 12 is able to get four teams into the NCAA Tournament, the Mountaineers might be the answer.