#1 Notre Dame -10.5 v. #2 Louisville
Over/under: 156.5
The 10.5 line is one that most people are jumping on, grabbing Louisville and the points while thinking, “What a ridiculous line! I’ll happily take the Cards and those points, this is an easy pick!”
Yeah, that is exactly what should give you pause.
Louisville has some impressive numbers, there is no doubt about that. They shoot 49.4% from the field (7th in the NCAA), 37.9% from three (19th), have a 55.6% effective field goal percentage (7th), and score 0.98 points per play (5th). Durr is excellent and the team has a lot of players that fill their roles well.
All that said, I am concerned for the Cardinals in this one. I think the “Notre Dame will be motivated by the loss at home against UConn” storyline is silly (as if they wouldn’t be motivated had they won; what a ridiculous suggestion), but I do think Notre Dame is the better, deeper team. Durr leads the Cards with 20.9 ppg. Second? Sam Fuehring with 10.7
The Irish, meanwhile, feature Arike Ogunbowale scoring a smooth 22.1 ppg, Jessica Shepard with 15.4, Jackie Young with 15.3, Marina Mabrey with 13… you see where I’m going with this? Durr could very well score 40 points tonight, but I don’t know who else can, or will, step up. The Irish are also the superior team on the boards with an offensive rebounding rate of 41.4% (14th in NCAA), a scary number against a Louisville team who ranks 211th in terms of giving up o-boards.
Call me crazy because I know I’m in the minority, and it hurts me to say this because I am such a fan of Jeff Walz and this team in the long run, but I think the Irish take it tonight and cover the spread. Give me Notre Dame and the over.