#3 Baylor -5.5 at #11 Stanford
Over/under: 146.5
You won’t see Stanford as a multi-possession underdog at home very often so don’t get used to this. These two teams actually both matchup pretty evenly on the offensive end of the court. Both Baylor and Stanford are ranked in the top 15 in field goal percentage (1st and 9th, respectively), 3-point shooting (4th and 15th), effective field goal percentage (4th and 8th), points per scoring attempt (7th and 9th) and several other important categories. So where do we find the split that gives Baylor the edge from Vegas?
If you guessed defense, you’re right (and paying attention because that was the only answer you could have). The Cardinal are one of the worst teams in the country in 3-point defense, allowing their opponents to shoot 39.7% from deep. Now, while Baylor does shoot 43.2% from range, they are only making four three-pointers a game, so the number is slightly deceiving. What isn’t deceiving is that high field goal percentage from the post heavy Bears.
Another area that could very well determine today’s outcome is the rebounding battle. Baylor comes in averaging 14 offensive rebounds a game while Stanford is only giving up 6.3 per game, the best mark in the country. An eight rebound difference is huge, especially for Baylor who averages 0.98 points per play (9th best in the country).
It’s so hard to evenly evaluate both teams as Baylor has played the better schedule by far, while Stanford lost their last game to Gonzaga which was their first true test of the season. I keep going back and forth on this, and while I think Baylor is the better team talent-wise, I’m going to go with the home squad and trust Tara to get Stanford to bounce back. I’ll take Stanford and the over.
#22 Missouri -3.5 v. South Dakota
Over/under: 124.5
After Baylor-Stanford, this is easily the most intriguing game of the day for me. The Tigers are not a team that can score the ball at a high rate (they are averaging just 65 points per game) but they do well enough considering the pace at which they play; at 95.7 points per 100 possessions, they rank in the top 100. Defensively they are steady, they rebound the ball at a fine rate, and they get to the line a lot.
The issues? Mizzou only gets about 67 possessions a game (314th in the country). Couple that with ranking in the lower third of the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage and fouling at one of the highest rates, the Tigers just don’t do enough in the margins to allow themselves more wiggle room for mistakes.
South Dakota comes in ranking in the top 100 in most shooting categories and is putting in 104.7 points per 100 possessions. They are only giving up 7.6 offensive rebounds a game, 7th best, and take care of the ball, only averaging 13.5 turnovers per game. With wins over Green Bay and Iowa State already, this is a team who will be in the conversation all season long. But their defense leaves some serious questions.
The Coyotes rank in the 200’s in opponent’s three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, points per scoring attempt and three-point rate. All of those numbers are really concerning for them moving forward, but in this game, I think all the info I just gave tells us that these two teams are really even.
I would actually stay away from putting any money on this game, but for the sake of the article, I’ll make a pick. A South Dakota win wouldn’t surprise me, but give me Missoui and give me the over.