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The Money Line: NCAAW spreads, odds and predictions for Dec. 9

By Blake DuDonis

LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 15: (EDITORS NOTE: This image was shot with a fisheye lens.) Guests attend a viewing party for the NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament inside the 25,000-square-foot Race & Sports SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino which features 4,488-square-feet of HD video screens on March 15, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 15: (EDITORS NOTE: This image was shot with a fisheye lens.) Guests attend a viewing party for the NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament inside the 25,000-square-foot Race & Sports SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino which features 4,488-square-feet of HD video screens on March 15, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /
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KNOXVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 10: Texas Longhorns head coach Karen Aston coaching during a game between the Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Lady Volunteers on December 10, 2017, at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, TN. Tennessee defeated Texas 82-75.(Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
KNOXVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 10: Texas Longhorns head coach Karen Aston coaching during a game between the Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Lady Volunteers on December 10, 2017, at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, TN. Tennessee defeated Texas 82-75.(Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

#12 Texas -7.5 v. #9 Tennessee 
Over/under: 140.5

These two squared off last season in Knoxville on national television and it was… uhh… not a great game. Tennessee won 82-75 as the two teams combined for over 30 turnovers, went 5-for-31 from three and just never got into a rhythm. That was last year though so let’s look at the teams now. Texas has had a much more difficult schedule and their last time out they got decimated by #6 Mississippi State at home. The Longhorns had 22 turnovers which is too much, but they only forced 10 and that is the number that is concerning. On the season Texas is only forcing 15.4 turnovers a game, 240th in the country. They also have a really poor assisted shot rate of 51.9%, 236th in the country.

Those numbers concern me against a really athletic Tennessee team who is 10th in the country in turnovers forced (23.3 per game). To be fair, the Lady Vols have some of the same issues as Texas in the offensive department, but I think these teams are pretty even. Texas may win, but I’ll take Tennessee with the points and the over.

BOWLING GREEN, KY – NOVEMBER 6: Louisville Cardinals guard Asia Durr (25) drives past Western Kentucky Lady Toppers guard Meral Abdelgawad (30) during a college basketball game between the Louisville Cardinals and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on November 6, 2018 at E.A. Diddle Arena in Bowling Green Ky (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BOWLING GREEN, KY – NOVEMBER 6: Louisville Cardinals guard Asia Durr (25) drives past Western Kentucky Lady Toppers guard Meral Abdelgawad (30) during a college basketball game between the Louisville Cardinals and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on November 6, 2018 at E.A. Diddle Arena in Bowling Green Ky (Photo by Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

#5 Louisville -14.5 v. #19 Kentucky 
Over/under: 138.5

I’ve been pretty high on Kentucky since before the season and they’ve proven to be pretty good so far. A huge win over USF was impressive, and while UNC and UCLA are a bit down, winning three games in three days is tough. The Wildcats are shooting 40% from three as a team, they take care of the ball, and they are only giving up 73.9 points per 100 possessions (10th in NCAA). They are playing well and seem to be one of the better teams in the SEC this season.

All that said, Louisville is one of the toughest places in the country to play and you know the Yum Center will be packed out. The Cardinals are a really good team obviously, but in their lone game against a ranked team (Arizona State) they were pushed to the brink before winning by two thanks to a last-second shot and some questionable clock operation. Regardless, Asia Durr is one of the best players in the country and this team is clicking offensively (they rank in the top 15 in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, points per play and points per scoring attempt). Again, I’m big on Kentucky but I think Louisville at home is too much. Give me the Cards and the over. 

BRIDGEPORT, CONNECTICUT- MARCH 25: Sabrina Ionescu
BRIDGEPORT, CONNECTICUT- MARCH 25: Sabrina Ionescu /

Quick picks

In addition to the games above, I like:
-Oregon -7.5 at Michigan State (I like Oregon -7.5 v most teams)
-The under of 129.5 in the Missouri and St. Louis game between two teams that like to grind it out
–Norfolk State -3.5 at a struggling LaSalle and the under of 118.5


Other games available

Indiana -15.5 v. Missouri State. Over/under 139.5
Elon -18.5 at Winthrop. Over/under 126.5
#25 Miami (FL) -31.5 v New Orleans. Over/under 133.5
Western Michigan -7.5 at Detroit Mercy. Over/under 127.5
Hofstra -4.5 at UMBC. Over/under 120.5
Michigan -21.5 v. Oakland. Over/under 139.5
#14 Minnesota -7.5 at Boston College. Over/under 140.5
#18 Marquette -7.5 at Northwestern. Over/under 145.5
George Mason -11.5 at Eastern Kentucky. Over/under 125.5
Florida State -3.5 at St. John’s. Over/under 123.5
Florida -25.5 v Florida A&M. Over/under 129.5
Hartford -14.5 v. Bryant. Over/under 129.5
Dartmouth -11.5 v. Fairfield. Over/under 113.5
Milwaukee -14.5 at North Dakota State. Over/under 128.5
South Alabama -29.5 v. Alabama State. Over/under 117.5
Kansas -22.5 v. Grambling. Over/under 127.5
UT Martin -12.5 at Libscomb. Over/under 150.5

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