2018-19 American Athletic Conference preview: UConn is still on top, but the middle of the pack is strengthening

Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images)
Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images)
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UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 05: Cincinnati Bearcats Forward Iimar’i Thomas (22) attempts to dribble past the defensive pressure of UConn Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) during the game as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UConn Huskies on March 05, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 05: Cincinnati Bearcats Forward Iimar’i Thomas (22) attempts to dribble past the defensive pressure of UConn Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) during the game as the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UConn Huskies on March 05, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Cincinnati Bearcats

Predicted finish: Fifth

Key Returners (last year’s stats):

G Nikira Goings, 5’8, Sr.: 11.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 37% 3PT, 25.7 MPG
F Iimar’I Thomas, 5’11 So.: 9.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 59% FG, 21.0 MPG
F Angel Rizor, 6’1, Jr.: 8.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 55% FG, 22.7 MPG
G Antoinette Miller, 5’6, Jr.: 5.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 23.6 MPG
G Sam Rodgers, 5’11, Jr.: 5.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 100% FT, 22.7 MPG

Biggest losses (last year’s stats):

G Ana Owens, 5’6: 11.0P PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG, 92% FT, 32.9 MPG
F Shanice Johnson, 6’0: 10.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 24.5 MPG

Newcomers:

G Zenzele Apesemaka-Vital, 5’9, Fr.: Combo guard who can run the point or play on the wing. Known for her athleticism and skill set on both sides of the court.

G Monique Thompson, 5’8, Sr.: Grad transfer from Northwest Christian University. Averaged 9.6 PPG and was named all-conference First Team.

G Florence Sifa, 5’7, Jr.: Averaged 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game last year for NJCAA’s Jacksonville College.

Head coach: Michelle Clark-Heard, First season

Clark-Heard comes to Cincinnati from Western Kentucky, where she turned a single-digit-win team into a regular NCAA Tournament team. In her six seasons, the Hilltoppers danced four times as she helped the program navigate the transition from the Sun Belt to Conference USA. The competition will step up now in the American, but Clark-Heard has a host of conference and regional coach of the year awards to her name for a reason.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 28 at Ball State
Dec. 2 at Ohio State

Outlook: A new era begins in Cincinnati, and it comes off a string of four straight years in which the Bearcats improved on their winning percentage from the prior season. Last year, Cincinnati went 19-13 to earn a berth in the WNIT but will have to replace two major pieces in Owens and Johnson. As with any coaching change, there’s been a fair amount of turnover, but lucky for Clark-Heard, the important underclassmen from last year all return, along with now-senior leading scorer Nikira Goings. Her and Rogers were also the team’s only effective three-point shooters last year — a category where the Bearcats ranked as one of the worst in the conference. Adding Apesmaka-Vital and Sifa to the mix should give Cincinnati a dynamic backcourt with a bunch of scoring options.

Best-case scenario: Clark-Heard’s first season is a good one and Cincinnati again finishes in the top four in the conference and earns a bye in the AAC Tournament. The lack of quality wins keeps the Bearcats out of the NCAA Tournament, but the team has laid a strong foundation to earn a bid in 2020.

Worst-case scenario: Losing Johnson is going to hurt. Cincinnati was already a poor offensive rebounding team and mediocre shooting team — a bad combination — and Johnson would have been a huge lift. Without a frontcourt presence to replace her, Cincinnati could get buried in a hurry, especially against the better teams in the conference. A middling AAC finish and quick exit in the conference tournament would lead to a forgotten season.