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2018-19 American Athletic Conference preview: UConn is still on top, but the middle of the pack is strengthening

By Russell Steinberg

Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images)
Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images) /
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UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 06: South Florida Bulls Guard Kitija Laksa (33) shoots over UConn Huskies Guard Katie Lou Samuelson (33) during the game as the South Florida Bulls take on the UConn Huskies on March 06, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 06: South Florida Bulls Guard Kitija Laksa (33) shoots over UConn Huskies Guard Katie Lou Samuelson (33) during the game as the South Florida Bulls take on the UConn Huskies on March 06, 2018 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

USF Bulls
Predicted finish: Second

Key returners (last year’s stats):

G Kitija Laksa, 6’0, Sr.: 21.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 38% 3PT, 97% FT, 34.5 MPG
G Laura Ferriera, 5’11, Sr.: 10.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.5 SPG
P Tamara Henshaw, 6’1, Jr.: 6.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 60% FG, 20.2 MPG
P Alyssa Rader, 6’2, Jr.: 6.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 49% FG, 17.6 MPG

Key losses (last year’s stats):

F Maria Jespersen, 6’0: 18.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 46% FG, 34% 3PT, 34.9 MPG
G Laia Flores, 5’7: 8.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 6.4 APG, 35% 3PT

Newcomers:

F Silvia Serrat, 6’1, So.: Missed last season due to injury. Was a five-star recruit and member of Spanish Youth National Teams.
C Beatriz Jordao, 6’3, Fr.: Blue Star Europe five-star recruit. Averaged nine points and five rebounds per game for club team in Portugal.
F Janeta Rozentale, 6’0, Fr.: Averaged 12.2 points and 12.5 rebounds for club team TTT Riga Juniores. Played for Latvian U19 National Team in World Cup.
G Irida Tsafara, 6’0, Fr.: Played for U18 Ikaros Kallitheas in Greece. Jose Fernandez said in a release that he sees her as a wing.
G Makaela Kestner, 5’11, Fr.: All-time leading scorer at Liberty High School (VA). Averaged 17 points per game as a senior and scored over 1,500 for her career.
G Elisa Pinzan, 5’8, Fr.: Blue Star Europe five-star recruit. Played for Italy in U18 European Championships and U19 World Cup.
G Sydni Harvey, 5’10, Fr.: Three-star recruit, per ESPN. Natural point guard and 2,000-point scorer in high school.

Head coach: Jose Fernandez, 19th season

Since the AAC formed from the remnants of the old Big East, Fernandez’s teams have finished no worse than third every season. Overall, the Bulls have enjoyed six consecutive 20-win seasons and five NCAA Tournament berths in the last six years. But despite the team’s success, Fernandez still has two huge monkeys to get off his back: Beating UConn (USF is 0-26 all-time) and getting out of the first weekend in March. This probably isn’t the year that USF knocks off the Huskies, but a Sweet 16 berth is a realistic goal.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 6 at Ohio State
Nov. 18 vs. Oklahoma
Nov. 22 vs. Kentucky (Paradise Jam)
Nov. 23 vs. North Carolina (Paradise Jam)
Nov. 24 vs. UCLA (Paradise Jam)
Dec. 9 vs. George Washington
Dec. 21 vs. Virginia (Florida Sunshine Classic)
Dec. 30 at LSU

Outlook: The Bulls have enough coming back that even with Jespersen gone, they are still probably the second-best team in the AAC (but their in-state rivalry games with UCF should be a ton of fun). Laksa was the conference’s leading scorer last year and the sixth-leading three-point shooter by percentage. She also made the most threes of anyone in the conference, and by a wide margin, so look for her to be first-team preseason all-AAC. That’s the good news. Here’s the scarier part (as scary as losing Jespersen, even): Laia Flores was perhaps the best point guard in the AAC and you don’t just replace that overnight. Even with some elite overseas talent coming in. USF can plug the holes Jespersen leaves offensively and they have enough pieces in the front court to make it work, but Flores ran the show. Who will do that this year?

Best-case scenario: Say what you will about USF’s question marks, but they have some true bucket-getters, starting with Laksa, but also with their overseas products coming in. USF was one of the best offensive teams in the AAC last year and should be again. Fans can hope for another second-place finish in the American, a few huge non-conference wins (their schedule is stacked), a top-six seed in the NCAA Tournament, a little bit of luck, and the Sweet 16.

Worst-case scenario: Call me crazy but losing an all-conference first-teamer and your starting point guard hurts. Especially when you’re going to have to lean on some young talent going forward. It’s possible that with Laksa as the only bona fide star, the other pieces struggle to fall into place and USF suffers a major setback. Enough to keep them out of the NCAA Tournament? Maybe. The margin for error in the American is razor-thin.

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