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2018-19 American Athletic Conference preview: UConn is still on top, but the middle of the pack is strengthening

By Russell Steinberg

Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images)
Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images) /
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Connecticut’s Katie Lou Samuelson (33) reacts after a made basket against Notre Dame in an NCAA Tournament national semifinal at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, on Friday, March 30, 2018. Notre Dame advanced, 91-89, in overtime. (Brad Horrigan/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images)
Connecticut’s Katie Lou Samuelson (33) reacts after a made basket against Notre Dame in an NCAA Tournament national semifinal at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, on Friday, March 30, 2018. Notre Dame advanced, 91-89, in overtime. (Brad Horrigan/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images) /

Connecticut Huskies
Predicted finish: First

Key returners (last season’s stats):
G/F Katie Lou Samuelson, 6’3, Sr.: 17.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 48% 3PT, 53% FG, 84% FT
F Napheesa Collier, 6’1, Sr.:  16.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 58% FG, 79% FT, 28.8 MPG
G Crystal Dangerfield, 5’5, Jr.: 9.5 PPG, 4.1 APG, 45% 3PT, 81% FT, 28.7 MPG
G/F Megan Walker, 6’1, So.: 5.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 44% FG

Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
G Kia Nurse, 6’0: 13.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 52% FG, 44% 3PT
F Gabby Williams, 5’11: 11.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 61% FG
F Azura Stevens, 6’6: 14.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 61% FG

Newcomers
G Christyn Williams, 5’11, Fr: Nation’s top-ranked recruit, per ESPN. Member of U18 USA Basketball National Team. National High School Player of the Year. Left-handed combo guard.
F Olivia Nelson-Ododa, 6’4, Fr.: Nation’s fifth-ranked recruit, per ESPN. Member of U18 USA Basketball National Team. McDonald’s All-American. Should make an instant impact defensively as her offensive game continues to grow.

Head Coach: Geno Auriemma, 34th season

Coming off of two straight seasons with national semifinal losses, Auriemma enters the season on the hot seat in Storrs. Or, you could probably find a couple of deranged season ticket holders at Gampel Pavilion who think that. Those are just the expectations that Auriemma has set up, and he wouldn’t have it any other way. He hasn’t missed a Final Four since Barack Obama was the junior senator from Illinois, hasn’t missed the Elite Eight since Pope John Paul II passed, and hasn’t finished worse than third in his conference since the Reagan administration. We all know what the expectations are in Storrs.

Key non-conference games

Nov. 11 vs. Ohio State
Nov. 28 vs. DePaul
Dec. 2 at Notre Dame
Dec. 19 at Oklahoma
Dec. 22 at California
Jan. 3 at Baylor
Jan. 31 at Louisville
Feb. 11 vs. South Carolina

Outlook: Hey, they’re still the class of the American. By a wide margin. And a probable 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. So by definition, UConn is a national championship contender, even if for the first time in a while, the Huskies aren’t the prohibitive favorite. Samuelson and Collier will be two of the best players in the country, but what comes after that is a big question mark. Megan Walker came into last season as the top-ranked recruit in the country but struggled to adjust to the college game. Can she take on a bigger role? How much will Christyn Williams and Nelson-Ododa contribute right away? After Collier, the front court is thin, and UConn doesn’t have the same athleticism it had last year with Gabby Williams doing whatever she wanted on the court to make up for it. How UConn adjusts and who can slip into higher profile roles will determine how far the Huskies go.

Best Case Scenario: A growing team absorbs a couple early non-conference losses and hits its stride around New Year’s. The Huskies run through the AAC once again and knock off Louisville and South Carolina along the way. By the time March hits, UConn is again the best team in the country and national player of the year Katie Lou Samuelson is the Most Outstanding Player as UConn cuts down the nets in April.

Worst Case Scenario: Samuelson, Dangerfield, and Collier still will the Huskies to an unbeaten AAC season, despite some close calls, but the team REALLY misses the trio of Nurse, Stevens, and Williams. Nelson-Ododa has some growing pains and UConn is vulnerable in the post. The nation’s best can capitalize on that and the Huskies fall to a 2 seed in the Elite Eight. Likely? No. But it can happen.

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