2018-19 American Athletic Conference preview: UConn is still on top, but the middle of the pack is strengthening

Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images)
Connecticut Huskies guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) pushes the ball up court against Temple during the first half on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018 at McGonicle Hall in Philadelphia, Pa. Dangerfield scored 12 points to help UConn to 113-57 victory. (John Woike/Hartford Courant/TNS via Getty Images) /
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STORRS, CT – FEBRUARY 25: Memphis’ Guard Taylor Barnes (15) works around UConn Huskies Guard/Forward Katie Lou Samuelson (33) during the first half of a women’s division 1 basketball game between the Memphis Tigers and the UConn Huskies on February 25, 2017, at the Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, CT. (Photo by David Hahn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
STORRS, CT – FEBRUARY 25: Memphis’ Guard Taylor Barnes (15) works around UConn Huskies Guard/Forward Katie Lou Samuelson (33) during the first half of a women’s division 1 basketball game between the Memphis Tigers and the UConn Huskies on February 25, 2017, at the Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, CT. (Photo by David Hahn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Memphis Tigers
Predicted finish: Tenth

Key returners (Last year’s stats):

G Taylor Barnes, 5’8, Jr.: 8.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.2 APG, 74% FT, 35.7 MPG
G Jada Stinson, 5’8, So.: 6.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, 30.6 MPG
F Alana Davis, 6’2, So.: 6.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 57% FG, 18.5 MPG
F Brianna Porter, 6’3, Sr.: 3.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 50% FG, 19.3 MPG
F Jasmine James, 6’1, Sr.: 3.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 17.7 MPG

Key losses (Last year’s stats):

G Brea Elmore, 5’9: 15.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 37% 3PT, 74% FT, 35.6 MPG
F Cheyenne Creighton, 6’1: 14.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 48% FG, 35% 3PT, 37.1 MPG
G Breigha Wilder-Cochran, 5’9: 2.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 25.3 MPG

Newcomers:

G Gazmyne Herndon, 5’8, Jr.: Started 32 games for Walters State CC and placed fifth in the nation in assists. Third all-time assist leader in program history. Ranked 11th-best SG in JuCo rankings per Dan Olson Collegiate Girls Basketball Report.

C Camille Buckhanon, 6’2, Fr.: High school’s all-time leading rebounder. Averaged 28 points, 15 rebounds, six blocks, three assists as a senior.

G/F Malainna White, 5’9, Fr.: Three-star recruit per ESPN. Averaged 22 points, eight rebounds, eight assists as a senior.

F Manaya Jones, 6’4, So.: Sat out last year as a transfer from Old Dominion. Averaged 3.3 points and 2.6 rebounds per game as a freshman.

F Kiana Coomber, 5’11, Jr.: Averaged 7.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game at Chipola College after transferring from Loyola University Chicago. Shot 43 percent from the field.

G Jamirah Shutes, 5’6 Fr.: Averaged 33 points and 11 rebounds as a senior. 3,000-point scorer in high school. Holds state tournament scoring record with 46 points in a game.

F Ashia Jones, 6’1, Sr.: Has not played since 2014-15 due to injury and transfer rules. Started 32 games for UT Martin in 2014-15.

Head coach: Melissa McFerrin, 11th season

There’s no question that McFerrin has the experience. She was an assistant for the Liberty and Mystics in the WNBA and spent time on the Ohio State and Minnesota benches before taking the head coaching job at American. She brought the Eagles to the WNIT then took over the Memphis job in 2008. But it hasn’t been easy. Under her watch, the Tigers have gone to the WNIT four times but have yet to break through to the NCAA Tournament. In a rebuilding year, it’s unlikely that streak ends in 2019.

Key non-conference games:

Jan. 1 at George Washington

Outlook: With Brea Elmore and Cheyenne Creighton leaving and taking their combined 30 points per game with them, Memphis will look to some freshmen and some transfers as it rebuilds. The good news is it’s not a total rebuild as Taylor Barnes and Jada Stinson provide some stability in the backcourt. Still, Alana Davis will have to step into a starting role and see if she could maintain her 57 percent shooting mark at a higher volume. Look for Camile Buckhanon to help as well. Ashia Jones is the x-factor.

Best-case scenario: What could the best-case scenario be for a team that went 10-20 last year and loses half its scoring? If the newcomers mesh, they can pick off a couple AAC teams, but don’t expect Memphis to compete in the upper two-thirds of the conference.

Worst-case scenario: Same as above but also Penny Hardaway disappoints on the men’s side and all the excitement around the basketball programs evaporates. Maybe the Grizzlies get even worse too.