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2018-19 SEC preview: Will Mississippi State or South Carolina prevail?

By Blake DuDonis

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GREENVILLE, SC – MARCH 01: Florida guard Delicia Washington goes to the basket during 2nd half action between the Florida Gators and the Arkansas Razorbacks on March 01, 2017 at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC. (Photo by Doug Buffington/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
GREENVILLE, SC – MARCH 01: Florida guard Delicia Washington goes to the basket during 2nd half action between the Florida Gators and the Arkansas Razorbacks on March 01, 2017 at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, SC. (Photo by Doug Buffington/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Florida Gators
Last season: 11-19 (3-13, T-11th) 
Predicted finish this season: 12th

Key returners (last season’s stats)
G- Funda Nakkasoglu, 5’8, R-SR- 14.9 PPG, 37.3% 3pt, 35.4 MPG
G- Delicia Washington, 5’10, JR- 10.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 34.3% 3pt

Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
F- Haley Lorenzen, 6’3- 12.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 47.9% FG, 30.7 MPG (graduated)
F- Paulina Hersler, 6’3- 11.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 33.6% 3pt, 31 MPG (graduated)
G- Dyandria Anderson, 5’10- 9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.2 APG (graduated)

Newcomers
G- Ariel Johnson, 5’9, (Tracey, CA), FR- Ranked #89 in 2018 class, #19 point guard
G- Emanuely de Oliveria, 5’10, (Mount Pleasant, UT/Criciuma, Brazil), FR- Ranked #101 in 2018 class, #13 small forward
F- Kristina Moore, 6’1, (Sydney, Australia), FR- Ranked #6 international by Prospect Nation
C- Paige Robinson, 6’4, (Midland (TX) College/ London, England), JR- Ranked #47 JUCO, #7 center
G- Corey Staples, 5’8, (Sante Fe College/ Buford, GA), R-JR-Was on the team last season; tore her ACL first day of practice
F- Zada Williams, 6’2, (Miami (FL)/ Babson Park, FL), R-JR- Ranked #154 in 2015 class, #26 center. Played limited minutes at Miami (FL)
G- Danielle Rainey, 5’10, (TCU/ Washington D.C.), R-SO- Ranked #118 in 2016 class, #26 point guard. Played limited minutes at TCU. Will be eligible after Fall semester

Head Coach- Cameron Newbauer, 2nd season
The first year taking over a struggling program is tough on most coaches, but the lumps Cam Newbauer took were ones he really wasn’t familiar with. Florida lost nearly as many conference games last season (13) as Newbauer did in four seasons as the head coach of Belmont (15). Known for his run-and-gun system, Newbauer’s Gators did make 249 threes last season, second in the SEC (Mississipi State was first with 278). The youthful, high energetic Newbauer and his staff brought in a solid first recruiting class and will look to build upon that, something they should be able to do in talent-rich Florida. Despite the poor record in year one, Florida competed and had several close calls against top teams in the SEC (a two-point loss to Mizzou, a five-point loss to Texas A&M, a seven-point loss to South Carolina). While he may not see the fruits of his labor yet, Newbauer and the Gators are trending in the right direction.

Key non-conference games
Nov. 11- at Florida State
Nov. 21– at Indiana
Dec. 5- v. Bethune-Cookman
Dec.16- at Ohio State
Dec. 20- Utah (Las Vegas)

Outlook
As previously mentioned, Florida’s final record is a bit misleading with so many close losses, but they all count the same I suppose. The losses of Lorenzen, Hersler and Anderson will be felt in a big way; they were the only three players to start every game last year for Florida. Delicia Washington had a fine sophomore campaign, but after becoming the first ever Gator to win Freshman of the Year two seasons ago, she needs to make a big jump this season to help a team full of new faces. With just five returners and 11 eligible players, the margin of error is small and the SEC can be a brutal place to experience growing pains.

The biggest question going into the season that Florida needs to answer is this: who is going to score? They finished 12th in the SEC in scoring last season with 65.6 PPG (ahead of just Ole Miss and Auburn) and they graduated their 2nd, 3rd and 5th leading scorers. And while some teams can overcome their offensive deficiencies with a stout defense, Florida ranked poorly on both sides of the ball (142nd in offensive rating and 130th in defensive rating according to HerHoopStats). Until they make those improvements, they will continue to struggle.

Best Case Scenario-  Washington makes the big leap and makes All-SEC 1st team and the newcomers make an immediate impact. Those close losses flip to wins and Florida finishes in 9th and becomes a scary matchup in the SEC tournament.

Worst Case Scenario- The offensive and defensives woes aren’t fixed quite yet, leaving Washington and Nakkasoglu alone to do all the heavy lifting. It takes a win on the last day of the regular season to avoid finishing in last place.

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