2018-19 SEC preview: Will Mississippi State or South Carolina prevail?
South Carolina Gamecocks
Last season: 29-7 (12-4, T-2nd)
Predicted finish this season: 2nd
Key returners (last season’s stats)
F- Alexis Jennings, 6’3, SR- 11.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 58.3% FG, 25.3 MPG
PG- Tyasha Harris, 5’10, JR- 10.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.4 RPG, 2.4 AST/TO (3rd in SEC), 33.6 MPG, Second Team All-SEC
G- Bianca Jackson, 5’10, SO- 7.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 39.4% FG, 39.4% 3pt, 30.3 MPG
Biggest losses (last season’s stats)
F-A’ja Wilson, 6’3- 22.6 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 3.2 BPG, 54.2% FG, First Team All-SEC, All-Defensive, SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year, First Team AP All-American, National Player of the Year (graduated)
Newcomers
G- Destanni Henderson, 5’8, (Fort Myers, FL), FR- Ranked #6 in 2018 class, #1 point guard
F- Victaria Saxton, 6’1, (Rome, GA), FR- Ranked #47 in 2018 class, #6 center
F- Elysa Wesolek, 6’1, (Charleston, SC), FR
G- Te’a Cooper, 5’8, (Tennessee/ Powder Springs, GA), R-JR- Ranked #12 in 2015 class, #5 point guard. Averaged 8.6 PPG at Tennessee, SEC All-Freshman selection
G- Nelly Perry, 5’10, (Clemson/ Camden, N.J.), RS-SR- Averaged 11 PPG, 2.5 APG at Clemson; missed 2017-18 with a knee injury. Graduate transfer.
Head Coach- Dawn Staley, 11th season
What is there left to say about Dawn Staley that you don’t already know? The 48-year-old Philly native has taken a dormant program to national prominence, was named Team USA head coach, led Team USA to a gold medal in the World Cup which made her the first person to ever win the event as a player and a coach, and she owns the world’s most famous dog in Champ. Under her guidance, the Gamecocks have made it to at least the sweet sixteen for five years running now and won eight SEC championships during that time (four regular season titles, four tournament titles).
Certainly, Staley will have a new challenge this season: what do you do now that A’ja Wilson is gone? It seems that many people are assuming a backstep without the All-World Wilson but one look at their roster shows that USC hasn’t simply been resting on their laurels. While their style will have to change slightly, let’s not forget that Staley is the same coach who lost her starting center at the end of the regular season two years ago and all she did was install a new offense and win the national championship. Staley is as good as they come.
Key non-conference games
Nov. 18- v. Maryland
Dec. 2- v. Baylor
Dec. 8- v. Duke
Feb. 11- at UConn
*Potential matchups with Oregon State and Notre Dame. Gonzaga, Drake or Rutgers in Vancouver Showcase Nov. 23-24
Outlook
You simply do not replace a talent like A’ja Wilson. You can still win despite losing a transcendent star. These things can both be true. While the local legend has moved on to her professional career, South Carolina has plenty coming back. Alexis Jennings and Tyasha Harris will be called upon to lead this team, as while the now-eligible Te’a Cooper. Mix them with other returners like Bianca Cuevas-Moore, Bianca Jackson, then toss in the #16 ranked freshman class in the country and you’ve got a solid squad. USC ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating all four years of Wilson’s career, something that Wilson obviously had a lot to do with. If they can at least be in the top 25 or 30 in those departments, that would serve as a good indication of their potential moving forward.
They do need to improve in some areas. Opponents shot 33.1% from three against USC last year, one of the highest percentages given up by any team in the country. They also failed to force a lot of turnovers (just 13.1 per game), something they will need to do this season to allow themselves to get some easier points. I would expect that to happen, as many times the team would drop in a zone to protect Wilson from foul trouble and to slow the game down. This Gamecocks team has a ton of athletes and with a constantly improve point guard in Harris, this team has the ability to run. While, again, the loss of Wilson hurts, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see this team sweep the SEC titles again; they are that good.
Best Case Scenario- A’ja who? Harris, Cooper and Jennings establish themselves as the Big 3, turning the Gamecocks into a running, scoring machine. The team takes care of business by securing the regular season on the road, turning their final regular season game at home v. Mississippi State into a celebration. They take the tournament too and snag a 1-seed in the Big Dance, silencing what little doubters there are left.
Worst Case Scenario- Come back A’ja! The team struggles to establish a go-to scorer and while their defense is solid, they can’t find consistent points. They hang around the top of the SEC standings but ultimately falter. To make things worse, Mississippi State secures the title on the Gamecocks home floor. The SEC tournament ends in the semis and a four-seed in the NCAA tournament creates a difficult path.