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Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Preview: No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Villanova

SOUTH BEND, IN - MARCH 16: Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Arike Ogunbowale (24) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Marina Mabrey (3) look on against the Cal State Northridge Matadors during the first round of the Division I Women's Championship on March 16, 2018 at the Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
SOUTH BEND, IN - MARCH 16: Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Arike Ogunbowale (24) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Marina Mabrey (3) look on against the Cal State Northridge Matadors during the first round of the Division I Women's Championship on March 16, 2018 at the Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 1 seed Notre Dame advanced with a convincing win Friday over a very capable Cal State Northridge squad. Arike Ogunbowale (game-high 30 points, five rebounds, five assists) and Jessica Shepard (24 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists) each shot a tidy 12-20 from the field. Marina Mabrey shot 6-8 from deep, finishing with 23 points, seven assists and four steals for the Irish. They’ll take on No. 9 seed Villanova, who gutted out a win in overtime after South Dakota State’s Madison Guebert tied the game at the buzzer with a deep three-pointer off the glass.  

The extra period may have been taxing for Villanova. Notre Dame, however, suffered a bigger blow just three minutes into their first round contest. Starting forward Kathryn Westbeld rolled her left ankle three minutes into the game and did not return. Per Notre Dame Insider, she will be a game-time decision on Sunday.

The Irish have been hit hard with the injury bug this season. Ogunbowale, Shepard, Mabry and Jackie Young bring plenty of scoring punch, but without Westbeld, their bench would get even shorter.

Just six players got significant run for Nova against the Jackrabbits. They may not be the team to test Notre Dame’s depth with or without Westbeld, but they do have some high volume three-point shooters that could tilt the math in their favor. Adrianna Hahn (36.7% on 180 3PTA) was the star Friday. She shot 6-12 from deep, including the dagger in overtime that pushed their lead to nine:

With the help of HerHoopStats, here’s a look at the Four Factors (defined in their glossary) for each team:

Villanova has three proven three-point shooters in Hahn, Kelly Jekot and Jannah Tucker. They don’t crash the offensive glass and rarely get to the line. They’ve done well to take care of the ball all season (just nine against SDSU). That will need to continue in this one. If they can generate some drive and kick threes, they’ll be in business.

Nova’s 47.1% three-point rate ranks fifth in the country. The Wildcats have ranked in the top six in that category for five years running.

All that said, few teams have anything approximating an solution to slowing down Ogunbowale or Shepard. Villanova is much more reliant on its offense. The Irish have been even more efficient this season despite having the ninth lowest three-point rate in the country. Notre Dame is another team that shoots its well when they line ‘em up, though (36.8%). Mabry in particular is a threat to get hot from the outside.

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Keep an eye on the Irish on the offensive glass. A 40% offensive rebounding rate puts them in the top-20 in the country, and a strong effort there could likely negate Nova’s edge in three-point shooting and wash away their hopes of an upset.

Stats obtained via HerHoopStats. 

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