*Note: Spreads will only be for teams that had better than a 20% win probability last round*
Top bracket spreads
Barring an upset, #1 Mississippi State will advance to play the winner of #4 LSU and #5 Texas A&M. For those games:
Mississippi State would be -19.5 against LSU with a 96% win probability.
Mississippi State would be -14.5 against Texas A&M with a 91 % win probability.
Bottom bracket spreads
With #2 South Carolina and #7 Tennessee, plus #3 Georgia and #6 Missouri being so evenly matched by the spreads, the bottom bracket would appear to have more potential for drama (especially if South Carolina and Missouri play again). Let’s look at all possible match ups.
South Carolina would be -5.5 against Georgia with a 63% win probability.
South Carolina would be -5.5 against Missouri with a 65% win probability.
Tennessee would be -5.5 against Missouri with a 65% win probability.
Tennessee would be -5.5 against Georgia with a 63% win probability.
Finals
With Mississippi State as the heavy favorite all the way through on their side of the bracket, the numbers suggest any one of four teams could make it through the other side. Let’s look at the spread for them all just to be safe.
Mississippi State would be -11.5 against South Carolina with a 85% win probability.
Mississippi State would be -15.5 against Georgia with a 93% win probability.
Mississippi State would be -15.5 against Missouri with a 92% win probability.
Mississippi State would be -11.5 against South Carolina with a 85% win probability.
While it is clear that the number favor Mississippi State, the SEC has proven itself time and again to be an unpredictable league. With play starting tomorrow morning in Nashville, the champion will be crowned on Sunday and earn the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
