#1 Mississippi State v #8 Alabama/#9 Kentucky
The Bulldogs secured their first ever SEC championship during the regular season and will now look to take the conference tournament as well. With an average scoring margin of +28, the only SEC game Mississippi State didn’t win by at least 13 points was a four point win on the road against Missouri. Victoria Vivians and Teaira McCowan were both selected to All-SEC 1st team and have led Mississippi State to a 30-0 record, just the second team in SEC history to finish the regular season undefeated.
Stats to know- Mississippi State
The good- The Bulldogs rank in the Top 10 in points per 100 possessions (118.2, 2nd), margin per 100 possessions (+38.8, 3rd), 3-pt % (39.5, 9th) and turnovers per game (11.1, 3rd). They are also Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating. Those are all really good.
The bad- There are two weak spots that jump out about MSU. Their assisted shot rate is just 52.7% (256th in the country) meaning that they take a lot of shots in isolation type situations. They also only average 24.2 defensive rebounds per game, ranking 230th.
The spread
Mississippi State would be -24.5 against both Alabama and Kentucky with a 98% win probability against both teams.
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#4 LSU v winner of #5 Texas A&M v #12 Vanderbilt/#13 Arkansas
After starting SEC play at 2-2, LSU managed to never lose twice in a row after that, helping them go 11-5 in conference. The 11 conference wins are the most under Nikki Fargas and ties their highest finish under her. LSU won four of their last five games and earned the 4-seed after winning the tiebreaker over Texas A&M, Missouri and Tennessee.
Stats to know- LSU
The good– LSU isn’t great at one particular thing, but they are really solid in many areas which is almost just as good. They are +4.6 in the turnover margin (3rd in the SEC), are 38th in the country in steal rate at 14.2% and pull down 14.3 offensive rebounds a game (55th in the country).
The bad- While their offensive rebounding is good, a huge problem is that Tiger’s opponents get them at an even higher rate, 36.3%, ranking the Tigers D at 295th in terms of preventing them. Also, the Tigers 61.2% FT shooting mark, 11th worst in the country, is bound to hurt them at some points.
The spread
LSU would be +5.5 against Texas A&M with the Aggies owning a 65% win probability.
LSU would be -11.5 against both Vanderbilt and Arkansas with a 85% win probability against both.
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#2 South Carolina v #7 Tennessee/#10 Auburn
For the first time in four years, South Carolina finds themselves out of the #1 seed. Despite their streak of regular season championships coming to an end, A’ja Wilson mustered up one more extraordinary campaign to lead the Gamecocks to the #2 seed while winning a record third SEC Player of the Year award. South Carolina will be without Lindsay Spann for the rest of the season so the pressure to win a fifth straight conference tournament falls squarely on Wilson and Ty Harris. Two of their four losses came at the hands of Tennessee and both games were missed by Wilson, a fact surely not lost on either team.
Stats to know- South Carolina
The good– Ranked 13th in both offensive and defensive rating, the Gamecocks are steady. Their 108.6 points per 100 possessions is 21st in the country and their true shooting of 53.4% is 28th. South Carolina is also in the 89% percentile or higher in block rate, turnover rate and opponent true shooting percentage.
The bad- A fine 3-pt shooting team themselves, South Carolina ranks 264th in opponent 3-pt percentage (33.2%). They also only force 14.4 turnover a game (251st) and their assisted shot rate has dipped to 53% (251st).
The spread
Assuming Wilson plays, South Carolina v Tennessee would be a pick em game with an even 50/50 win probability for either team. Doesn’t get more even than that.
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#3 Georgia v winner of #6 Missouri and #11 Florida/#14 Ole Miss
The Bulldogs of Georgia made yet another leap this year, tying South Carolina for second place and getting the 3-seed. The tie for second was the best finish for the program since 2006-07 and much of their damage was done during their seven-game win streak after losing their SEC opener against Mississippi State. With Missouri likely looming, then South Carolina or Tennessee in all likelihood, the Bulldogs have found themselves on a tough road to SEC glory.
Stats to know- Georgia
The good– 16.5 assists per game is tops in the SEC and 37th in the country and their block rate of 14.1% is 10th best. They only give up 57.2 PPG thanks in to their defense that only has seen opponents put up an effective field goal percentage of 34.5%, the 6th lowest percentage in the country. The Bulldogs make you earn every point.
The bad- Offensively it would be unfair to call Georgia bad, but they aren’t great. They rank in the mid-100’s with their true shooting and effective field goal percentages of 49.2% and 46.5%, respectively, and they give up 13 offensive rebounds per game, 254th in the country.
The spread
Georgia would be -2.5 against Missouri with a 53% win probability.
Georgia would be -13.5 against Florida with a 88% win probability.
Georgia would be -18.5 against Ole Miss with a 93% win probability.