Sure, talking to Curt Miller, to the players in the Connecticut Sun locker room, and the talk has been on making the WNBA playoffs, nothing more.
There was sense in that, with the Sun in a playoff drought that dated back to 2012, in walking before they ran.
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That’s all over now, however, with Connecticut clinching its first playoff berth since the Mike Thibault era this weekend. And truthfully, this has looked like more than a mere playoff team for a while, dating back to when the Sun served notice to the league with a win on Minnesota’s home floor, if not earlier.
“The locker room certainly has bigger goals so now we’ll fight for position and a very, very important potential bye,” Miller said following Connecticut’s playoff-clinching victory Saturday night. “For the four teams that get byes in the first round. Ultimately, as my GM half, I want to try and create something that has sustained success and everywhere I’ve been as a head coach, that has been a big part of that plan. This was just step one and I hope we have the opportunity to be in the playoffs every year.”
The real battle ahead for the Sun, to be waged over the season’s final few weeks, isn’t just playing postseason games. It is earning that coveted number two seed. The difference between two and three in WNBA postseason terms is enormous.
Consider the current playoff format: eight teams in the playoffs. Seeds five through eight play a single elimination game immediately. The top four seeds earn byes. But these are not created equal.
Seeds three and four get a single bye, then host a single elimination game against teams who won their first round playoff game. Despite successful seasons by any measure, these teams still face their season’s mortality within a single game.
Just ask the New York Liberty about this scenario. The Liberty finished atop the Eastern Conference last year. But the conference-free seeding landed them the third seed, just behind Minnesota and Los Angeles. For their success, they were rewarded with a do-or-die moment at Madison Square Garden against Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and the Phoenix Mercury. And that’s how their season ended.
The top two seeds, however, get double byes, advance to the semifinals automatically, and have a best-of-five series waiting for them when they get there.
A similar situation could be brewing this year, incidentally. Much like Phoenix in 2016, this season’s underachieving roster is in Seattle, where the talent of Breanna Stewart, Sue Bird and Jewell Loyd is far greater than the 11-16 record put together by the Storm under now-departed head coach Jenny Boucek. The Storm looked far more vibrant at both ends on Saturday night, and interim head coach Gary Kloppenburg has an organizational charge to get the team into the playoffs.
Truthfully, none of the teams in the current conversation for those final four playoff spots look like easy outs, whether Seattle, Dallas, New York, Chicago or yes, Diana Taurasi in a road elimination playoff game yet again, whoever advances to play the three and four seeds.
So those top two seeds? Critical.
Even after Friday night’s loss to the Sparks, the Lynx remain a full three games up on the Sparks with nine games to go for Minnesota, seven left for the Sparks. The Lynx are four games up in the loss column, and have lost four times all season. It is hard to envision the Lynx falling out of the top spot.
But that two seed? Consider that after Los Angeles’ loss Sunday in New York, the Sparks are just 1.5 games up on the Sun. And that’s even overstating the gap a bit: the Sparks are 19-8, the Sun 17-9, so just a game separates them in the loss column.
The road to the final day of the regular season looks a bit less perilous for the Sun than the Sparks, too. Connecticut has this schedule remaining: at Dream, Liberty, Mercury, Wings, Sky, at Mystics, at Mercury. The Sparks face: at Mystics, at Sky, Stars, at Mercury, Lynx and Dream.
All of which sets up a September 3 Sun-Sparks game in Los Angeles with the potential to decide which of the two teams gets that precious second playoff seed.
Miller has made no secret of his surprise about Connecticut’s ascent—not that it happened, but that this young roster, missing Chiney Ogwumike, did it a season earlier than he expected.
“I had confidence coming into this year that we had a lot of young talent,” Miller said Saturday night. “But with the start in the offseason with Chiney, and knowing there were still some unknown pieces, it may have come a year earlier than I thought.”
Still, it is not hard to understand why the Sun are so good this season, with Jonquel Jones now third in the WNBA in player efficiency rating at 28.1, and a rotation filled with players capable of scoring or distributing, rebounding and getting out on the break, hitting the big shot or finding a teammate who will. The result is an offense that now leads the WNBA in efficiency. Dismissing the Sun as a title contender, as easy as it is to get caught up in the preeminent WNBA rivalry of the moment between the Lynx and the Sparks, would be a profound error.
To really accelerate that timetable, though, the Sun need to do more than make the playoffs. To envision them capping the regular season that has Curt Miller in the driver’s seat for the rare double—coach of the year and executive of the year—the Sun will need to do one more thing.
They need that two seed. And the Sparks, elite once again, won’t give it up easily.
There won’t be a more consequential battle in the WNBA between now and the day the playoffs begin.