New York Liberty (+4.5, -110)
Washington Mystics (-4.5, -110)
Total: 167.5
Winners of four straight not so long ago, the Liberty have hit a small speed bump losing two of their last three, both to the Connecticut Sun. Their last time out, last Thursday, New York exploded for 32 points in the fourth quarter but it still wasn’t enough as they fell 94-89.
A quick look at the box score would suggest that the Liberty faired much better than the score indicated as they shot over 53% from the field, hit ten threes and had more free throws. A closer look shows that the Sun had an effective field goal percentage of 56.2 while also having an absurd 91.3% defensive rebounding rate, limiting the Liberty to just one shot most of the night. With Tina Charles, Kiah Stokes and Kia Vaughn on the squad, New York would certainly expect their offensive rebounding numbers to be better (currently ranked sixth), especially with their true shooting and effective field goal percentages so low (eight and sixth, respectively). The Liberty are also ranked in the middle of the pack as far as offensive and defensive ratings go which all suggest that they have, perhaps, over performed at this point. The team is full of talent so if things get clicking, look out.
The Mystics have responded exactly how their fans would have hoped after getting shelled by the Minnesota Lynx on national TV last weekend. After a beatdown of Chicago on Sunday, the Mystics turned in another impressive performance during their 100-70 victory at home over Seattle.
Hitting the 100 point threshold for the second time this season, Washington was led by, of course, Elena Delle Donne and her 25 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Kristi Toliver had 15 and Tayler Hill had 14 as the game was never in doubt from the start. During the Storm game, the Mystics forced 23 turnovers, a welcomed sight for a game currently ranking tenth in turnovers forced a game and eight in defensive rating. On offense, the team has actually taken a dip in made threes per game, but they still lead the league in percentage of points from three pointers while their effective field goal and true shooting percentages have held relatively steady.
This is a really tough game for me to pick, but I’m not going to stray from the hot team at home. I will take Washington fully knowing how dangerous New York is and, as usual with any game involving the Mystics, I’ll take the over.