Atlanta Dream (+5.5, -110)
Washington Mystics (-5.5, -110)
Total: 161
While I don’t think anyone could reasonably argue against Cheryl Reeve winning Coach of the Month for leading Minnesota to a perfect start, Michael Cooper certainly had to be the other candidate considered. An Atlanta team that is playing without the face of their franchise Angel McCoughtry for the foreseeable future, Cooper has gotten his team to drag scoring into the 70s and finish games out strong. After their win over San Antonio on Wednesday, the Dream are now 4-1 and looking to continue their hot streak.Tiffany Hayes is scoring 19.8 points per game (fifth in the WNBA), while Layshia Clarendon, Bria Holmes and Damiris Dantas are all averaging double digit scorning as well. As a team, the Dream are only scoring 79 points per game (fifth fewest in the league), but they are only giving up 75 to opponents (third fewest in the league). They take care of the ball (fourth lowest turnover percentage in the league) and slow the game down, which all contributes to the fact that every one of their games have been single digit games at the final horn.
A 4-2 start is nothing to scoff at, and despite the heightened expectations with the addition of Elena Delle Donne and Kristi Toliver in the off-season, the Mystics knew it would take some time to gel. All that said, they got away with one on Wednesday against the Sun, a game that eventually saw Washington come out on top, 78-76. Delle Donne shot a putrid 3-of-15 from the field, but went 7-of-7 from the free throw line and hit the shots late that mattered most. The game was the first without Emma Meesseman who is with her native Belgium national team in the EuroBasket Tournament. Tonight’s game will have two more important pieces missing for Washington, as Tayler Hill (neck/left shoulder) and Natasha Cloud (left knee strain) are both expected to be in street clothes for this one. The Mystics, who lead the league in made three pointers a game, will need several players to make up for the absence of Hill and Cloud. Ivory Latta has been a spark off the bench and may be asked to start, while I would expect to see more of 2017 first round pick Shatori Walker-Kimbrough as well.
At even strength, I believe Washington to be the better team, but it is impossible to ignore what Atlanta has done this season so far. Taking that into account, and the missing players for the Mystics, I actually think Atlanta covers, even if they lose. As for the spread, I know that I said I would take the over in every Mystics game, but the injuries gives me second though, so I will take the under (and kick myself when it goes over and I didn’t trust my gut).