It is a well-established pattern in WNBA history: the great players often show themselves as forces right away. But there is almost always growth in year two.
Take Maya Moore: great 2011, 5.3 win shares, led the Minnesota Lynx to a WNBA title. Year two? 7.4 win shares. Brittney Griner? Went from 3.0 win shares rookie year to 6.6 win shares in year two.
And so it goes down the line, whether Lauren Jackson (4.1 to 4.6), Katie Smith (2.4 to 6.4) Lindsay Whalen (2.3 to 5.3), the list goes on and on.
The problem is trying to figure out exactly where Breanna Stewart, with 5.5 win shares in her rookie season, is likely to improve.
The comps have long been incomplete at best for Stewart, whose offensive game recalls a combination of Jackson and Elena Delle Donne, and whose defensive versatility is like nothing the league has ever seen—positionally similar to Tamika Catchings, but with a remarkable wingspan that turns her into elite rim protector and the world’s Gumbiest free safety on any given possession.
By win shares, only Catchings—an absurd 9.2 in her rookie year—and Candace Parker at 7.4 posted significantly better value in their initial seasons than Stewart did. (Cynthia Cooper’s 9.4 in 1997, which came in Cooper’s mid-30s, doesn’t really count for this exercise.)
Yet it is an article of faith both among Stewart and the league’s observers that she will get even better, a frightening prospect for opponents considering she posted the seventh-best player efficiency rating in the league, finished second in defensive rebounding percentage, tenth in block percentage and fourth in defensive win shares.
On draft day 2016, when I asked Stewart which of her skills would translate from college, she calmly replied: “All of them.” And so they have.
So if we’re trying to nitpick here, trying to find that place where she can bring her Seattle numbers up to those from her senior season in Connecticut, the pickings are slim.
There’s three-point shooting, I guess: she shot 43.3 percent from three her senior season. Of course, overall, she was at 35.4 percent from deep in college, so her 33.8 percent as a rookie in Seattle isn’t really out of line. She shot 50.6 percent from two her rookie year, well below the 62.8 percent as a senior and her 57.8 percent mark overall from two in college, so there is some room for growth in efficiency.
And her knee injury, which ended her year in China and returned her to the United States early for some extra rest and individual workouts, may have been a blessing for working on just that area.
“Specifically just working on some more of the off the dribble stuff,” Stewart told The Summitt of her work during a conference call Wednesday afternoon. “Creating some space between defenders, and then the mid-range of the face-up game, that type of thing. Still tweaking other things, like the outside shooting, and the post-ups and that type of stuff. But really, always remain focused with the mid-range game, and having those moves and moves to build and counter what the defense is going to do after, having seen how people play me defensively.”
Stewart’s knowledge of the game and ability to adjust is an underrated part of her star skill package, often discussed well after her physical gifts, or not at all. But the basketball IQ combined with an unexpected bonus of time in the gym is the best argument yet for a leap forward from Stewart here in 2017.
There’s also her supporting cast. The more efficient Jewell Loyd is, the bigger threat she becomes from three, the more open space it will create for Stewart in the offense. The better Alexis Peterson is running the offense when Sue Bird is on the bench, the less dead time the Storm will have in terms of creation. The more Carolyn Swords, the 6’6 center acquired from the Liberty, assumes rim protection duties, the less wear and tear there will be on Stewart inside, and the freer she will be to destroy passing lanes and turn steals into unstoppable transition baskets.
Then there’s the change in schedule to a far more manageable set of games, after a 2016 gauntlet that few could have completed—a grueling march to a fourth consecutive national title with Geno Auriemma, then directly to camp in Seattle, stopping only to travel to Brazil and win gold with USA Basketball, then back to Seattle for a playoff stretch run.
“I think it was soon after the Olympics where Stewie had a dip,” ESPN basketball analyst Rebecca Lobo told The Summitt. “We did one of their games at Minnesota and I talked to her and she was clearly tired. She was willing to say that she was feeling a little bit of that fatigue. I think this year she’ll be rested. Even though she has the comeback because of the knee issues, I think she’ll be rested and I think she’ll be able to maintain the highest level of her game, even if it’s the same level we felt last year, I think you’ll be able to see her maintain it throughout the course of the season.”
Obviously, Lobo is right. Stewart’s field goal percentage by month? 42.9, 46.9, 45, 35.3 in three August games right after returning from Rio, then 51.7 percent in September. So it may not be as much about the skills Stewart adds as how consistently she utilizes all of them.
But it is notable, too, that she got to play overseas for a time, something that ESPN basketball analyst LaChina Robinson believes has its own value, and may contribute in a larger sense to why so many WNBA players return for year two improved.
“I think the biggest thing for a player just in general going from first to second year is they have the opportunity to play overseas,” Robinson told The Summitt during a conference call. “Playing internationally, from what I understand, it’s a bit different in terms of your role. Like the American players are often expected to carry a little bit heavier of a load. Some players that we’d typically see as a role player are the star players. So it allows them to build more versatility to their game, maybe thriving under a little more pressure for those players that did not have that role in the WNBA.”
One thing Stewart didn’t lack in her first season, or really at any point since she signed that letter of intent to attend Connecticut, was pressure. And so Robinson, like the rest of the basketball world, is eager to see what comes next for a talent unlike any we’ve ever seen, finally experiencing some stability at the professional level here in her second season.
To think of the level that she can play at when rested, when her body and mind are rested, it is intriguing to think about it,” Robinson said. “You think about the number of systems she’s had to play from UConn, and I know that the national team plays maybe some similar ways with Geno as a head coach. But all the different systems. So mentally and physically, she had a taxing stretch. So rested, I expect to see even bigger and better things from Breanna Stewart—though she was pretty darn impressive already.”