2019-20 American Athletic Conference preview: After UConn, the league is wide open

ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ALBANY, NY - MARCH 29: Connecticut Huskies Guard Crystal Dangerfield (5) dribbles the ball past UCLA Bruins Guard Japreece Dean (24) defending during the first half of the game between the UCLA Bruins and the University of Connecticut Huskies on March 29, 2019, at the Times Union Center in Albany NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 08: Tulane Green Wave Guard Dynah Jones (14) drives to the basket during the AAC Conference Women’s Basketball Championship as the Tulane Green Wave take on the USF Bulls on March 08, 2019 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
UNCASVILLE, CT – MARCH 08: Tulane Green Wave Guard Dynah Jones (14) drives to the basket during the AAC Conference Women’s Basketball Championship as the Tulane Green Wave take on the USF Bulls on March 08, 2019 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Tulane Green Wave
Predicted finish: Seventh

Key returners (Last year’s stats):

F Krystal Freeman, 6’0, Jr.: 14.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 50% FG
G Sierra Cheatham, 6’0, Jr.: 8.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 34% 3PT
G Dynah Jones, 5’9, So.: 7.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.6 APG
G Kayla Manuirirangi, 5’7, Sr.: 6.0 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.4 APG
G Kaila Anderson, 5’5, Jr.: 4.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.3 APG
G Erin Gutierrez, 5’9, So.: 4.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 3.4 APG

Biggest losses:

G Tatyana Lofton, 5’9: 6.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG
C Harlyn Wyatt, 6’2: 4.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG

Newcomers:

G Salma Bates, 5’7, Fr.
F Anijah Grant, 6’3, Fr.
F Irina Parau, 6’1, Fr.
F Dene’ Mimms, 6’5, RS-Fr.

Head coach: Lisa Stockton, 27th season

Lisa Stockton’s list of accomplishments as a head coach is a mile long, and that’s why back-to-back 5-11 AAC seasons is so strange to see. Under Stockton, the Green Wave have been to the NCAA Tournament 11 times and the WNIT an additional seven times. She has won 571 games as a head coach and is a two-time CUSA coach of the year. Stockton has a lot to be excited about this year, however, as she returns the bulk of her team from 2018-19 and has a real chance to bring the Green Wave back to the postseason.

Key non-conference games:

Nov. 10 at Washington
Nov. 17 vs. LSU
Nov. 24 vs. Alabama

Outlook:

If you want to bet on a team to make a significant jump in the AAC standings, Tulane is a good choice. The Green Wave return most of their scoring from last year, including preseason all-conference first-teamer Krystal Freeman. She ended last season with a flourish, scoring in double figures in each of her last eight games, including a 27-point outburst at Houston.

Sierra Cheatham has a chance to be in that all-conference conversation by the end of the year as well. She showed flashes of excellence as a sophomore and was the best three-point shooter on a bad three-point shooting team.

Last year, Tulane was the worst rebounding team in the AAC and the team most prone to turnovers. Freeman operated on both extremes, ranking in the top 10 in the league in offensive and defensive rebounding but also committing 2.5 turnovers per game. Dene’ Mimms, a former three-star prospect, redshirted last year and will join freshmen Irana Parau and Anijah Grant to help Freeman in the front court. Freshman Salma Bates was also a three-star recruit and will provide Kalia Anderson some relief at the point.

Best-case scenario:

Stockton seems excited about the energy and enthusiasm from her team in the preseason, and with most of this group playing together for the second or third year, there’s good reason for it. The upperclassmen also have something to prove, knowing this once-proud program has fallen on some tough times. There’s probably not enough here for a top-four finish in the league, but the Green Wave could be that 5 or 6 seed in the AAC Tournament.

Worst-case scenario:

There’s really no meat whatsoever to Tulane’s schedule, and while that means the Green Wave will pile up some wins, it’s not going to mean much. It’s easy to see a scenario where Tulane enters conference play with a gaudy record then gets beaten up in a month-long stretch with games against Cincinnati, UCF, USF (twice), Houston, Memphis, and UConn. As we saw last year, one losing streak and the Green Wave may not recover.